Description
Data and methods for our comment paper in Journal of Climate.
ABSTRACT: Lewis & Curry (2018) (hereafter LC18) present a method for the estimating the transient climate response (TCR) of the climate system from the temperature change between two time windows - an early baseline period in the 19th century, and a modern period primarily in the 21st century. The results suggest a lower value of TCR than estimates from climate model simulations. Previous studies have identified uncertainty in the historical forcings, the impact of the time evolution of the forcing on temperature response, and observational issues as contributory factors to this disagreement. We investigate a further factor: uncertainty in the bias corrections applied to historical sea surface temperature data. This uncertainty can particularly impact the estimation of variables on decadal timescales, and therefore impact the estimation of TCR using the window method as well as estimates of internal variability. We demonstrate that use of the whole historical record can mitigate the impacts of working with short time windows to some extent, particularly with respect to the early part of the record.
ABSTRACT: Lewis & Curry (2018) (hereafter LC18) present a method for the estimating the transient climate response (TCR) of the climate system from the temperature change between two time windows - an early baseline period in the 19th century, and a modern period primarily in the 21st century. The results suggest a lower value of TCR than estimates from climate model simulations. Previous studies have identified uncertainty in the historical forcings, the impact of the time evolution of the forcing on temperature response, and observational issues as contributory factors to this disagreement. We investigate a further factor: uncertainty in the bias corrections applied to historical sea surface temperature data. This uncertainty can particularly impact the estimation of variables on decadal timescales, and therefore impact the estimation of TCR using the window method as well as estimates of internal variability. We demonstrate that use of the whole historical record can mitigate the impacts of working with short time windows to some extent, particularly with respect to the early part of the record.
Date made available | 2018 |
---|---|
Publisher | University of York |
Temporal coverage | 1 Jan 1850 - 31 Dec 2017 |
Geographical coverage | Global |