An Integrated Epidemiological and Economic Model of COVID-19 NPIs in Argentina

Adolfo Rubinstein; Alejandro López Osornio; Adrian Santoro; Cintia Cejas; Ariel Bardach; Alfredo Daniel Palacios; Fernando Argento; Jamile Balivian; Federico Augustovski; Andrés Pichon-Riviere; Eduardo Levy Yeyati; Federico Filippini

An Integrated Epidemiological and Economic Model of COVID-19 NPIs in Argentina

Adolfo Rubinstein, Alejandro López Osornio, Adrian Santoro, Cintia Cejas, Ariel Bardach, Alfredo Daniel Palacios, Fernando Argento, Jamile Balivian, Federico Augustovski, Andrés Pichon-Riviere, Eduardo Levy Yeyati, Federico Filippini

Centre for Health Economics

Research output: Working paper

Abstract

We added a multi-sectoral economic framework to a SVEIR epidemiological model, combining the economic rationale of the DAEDALUS model with a detailed treatment of lockdown fatigue and declining compliance with Public Health and Social Measures reported in recent empirical work, to quantify the epidemic and economic benefits and costs of alternative lockdown and PHSM policies, both in terms of intensity and length. Our calibration replicates key features of the case and death- curves and economic cost for Argentina in 2021. The model allows us to quantify the short-term policy trade-off between lives and livelihoods and show that it can be significantly improved with targeted pharmaceutical policies such as vaccine rollout to reduce mainly severe disease and the death toll from COVID-19, as has been highlighted by previous studies.

Original language	English
Publisher	RedNIE Working Paper
Number of pages	37
Volume	197
Publication status	Published - Nov 2022

Access to Document

https://rednie.eco.unc.edu.ar/files/DT/197.pdf

Cite this

@techreport{2f233ba64c7d44b180ca3b9710614886,

title = "An Integrated Epidemiological and Economic Model of COVID-19 NPIs in Argentina",

abstract = "We added a multi-sectoral economic framework to a SVEIR epidemiological model, combining the economic rationale of the DAEDALUS model with a detailed treatment of lockdown fatigue and declining compliance with Public Health and Social Measures reported in recent empirical work, to quantify the epidemic and economic benefits and costs of alternative lockdown and PHSM policies, both in terms of intensity and length. Our calibration replicates key features of the case and death- curves and economic cost for Argentina in 2021. The model allows us to quantify the short-term policy trade-off between lives and livelihoods and show that it can be significantly improved with targeted pharmaceutical policies such as vaccine rollout to reduce mainly severe disease and the death toll from COVID-19, as has been highlighted by previous studies.",

author = "Adolfo Rubinstein and {L{\'o}pez Osornio}, Alejandro and Adrian Santoro and Cintia Cejas and Ariel Bardach and Palacios, {Alfredo Daniel} and Fernando Argento and Jamile Balivian and Federico Augustovski and Andr{\'e}s Pichon-Riviere and {Levy Yeyati}, Eduardo and Federico Filippini",

year = "2022",

month = nov,

language = "English",

volume = "197",

publisher = "RedNIE Working Paper",

type = "WorkingPaper",

institution = "RedNIE Working Paper",

}

TY - UNPB

T1 - An Integrated Epidemiological and Economic Model of COVID-19 NPIs in Argentina

AU - Rubinstein, Adolfo

AU - López Osornio, Alejandro

AU - Santoro, Adrian

AU - Cejas, Cintia

AU - Bardach, Ariel

AU - Palacios, Alfredo Daniel

AU - Argento, Fernando

AU - Balivian, Jamile

AU - Augustovski, Federico

AU - Pichon-Riviere, Andrés

AU - Levy Yeyati, Eduardo

AU - Filippini, Federico

PY - 2022/11

Y1 - 2022/11

N2 - We added a multi-sectoral economic framework to a SVEIR epidemiological model, combining the economic rationale of the DAEDALUS model with a detailed treatment of lockdown fatigue and declining compliance with Public Health and Social Measures reported in recent empirical work, to quantify the epidemic and economic benefits and costs of alternative lockdown and PHSM policies, both in terms of intensity and length. Our calibration replicates key features of the case and death- curves and economic cost for Argentina in 2021. The model allows us to quantify the short-term policy trade-off between lives and livelihoods and show that it can be significantly improved with targeted pharmaceutical policies such as vaccine rollout to reduce mainly severe disease and the death toll from COVID-19, as has been highlighted by previous studies.

AB - We added a multi-sectoral economic framework to a SVEIR epidemiological model, combining the economic rationale of the DAEDALUS model with a detailed treatment of lockdown fatigue and declining compliance with Public Health and Social Measures reported in recent empirical work, to quantify the epidemic and economic benefits and costs of alternative lockdown and PHSM policies, both in terms of intensity and length. Our calibration replicates key features of the case and death- curves and economic cost for Argentina in 2021. The model allows us to quantify the short-term policy trade-off between lives and livelihoods and show that it can be significantly improved with targeted pharmaceutical policies such as vaccine rollout to reduce mainly severe disease and the death toll from COVID-19, as has been highlighted by previous studies.

M3 - Working paper

VL - 197

BT - An Integrated Epidemiological and Economic Model of COVID-19 NPIs in Argentina

PB - RedNIE Working Paper

ER -