Climate change and translocations: The potential to re-establish two regionally-extinct butterfly species in Britain

TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate change and translocations: The potential to re-establish two regionally-extinct butterfly species in Britain

AU - Carroll, Matthew J.

AU - Anderson, Barbara J.

AU - Brereton, Tom M.

AU - Knight, Sarah J.

AU - Kudrna, Ottakar

AU - Thomas, Chris D.

PY - 2009/10

Y1 - 2009/10

N2 - Climate change is causing many organisms to migrate to track climatically-suitable habitat. In many cases, this will happen naturally, but in others, human intervention may be necessary in the form of 'assisted colonisation'. Species re-establishments in suitable parts of their historic ranges provide an opportunity to conserve some species and to test ideas about assisted colonisation. Here, bioclimatic models of the distributions of two extinct British butterflies, Aporia crataegi and Polyommatus semiargus, were used to investigate the potential for re-establishment in Britain. Generalised additive models and generalised linear models were created to describe the species' European distributions for the period 1961-1990. All models projected the British climate during this period to be suitable for both species. Thirty-year climate projections for the periods 1991-2020 and 2021-2050, and for three climate change scenarios, were then put into the models to generate projections of climatic suitability throughout the 21st century. British climate was projected to remain highly suitable for A. crataegi, but to decline somewhat for P. semiargus. Southern and eastern Britain were found to be the areas most likely to support suitable climate. This difference between the species appeared to be due in part to decreasing summer rainfall in climate change projections, as this should only benefit A. crataegi. It is concluded that, with further study of habitat requirements, both species could be reintroduced to Britain as part of a long-term European conservation strategy. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

AB - Climate change is causing many organisms to migrate to track climatically-suitable habitat. In many cases, this will happen naturally, but in others, human intervention may be necessary in the form of 'assisted colonisation'. Species re-establishments in suitable parts of their historic ranges provide an opportunity to conserve some species and to test ideas about assisted colonisation. Here, bioclimatic models of the distributions of two extinct British butterflies, Aporia crataegi and Polyommatus semiargus, were used to investigate the potential for re-establishment in Britain. Generalised additive models and generalised linear models were created to describe the species' European distributions for the period 1961-1990. All models projected the British climate during this period to be suitable for both species. Thirty-year climate projections for the periods 1991-2020 and 2021-2050, and for three climate change scenarios, were then put into the models to generate projections of climatic suitability throughout the 21st century. British climate was projected to remain highly suitable for A. crataegi, but to decline somewhat for P. semiargus. Southern and eastern Britain were found to be the areas most likely to support suitable climate. This difference between the species appeared to be due in part to decreasing summer rainfall in climate change projections, as this should only benefit A. crataegi. It is concluded that, with further study of habitat requirements, both species could be reintroduced to Britain as part of a long-term European conservation strategy. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

KW - Aporia crataegi

KW - Assisted colonisation

KW - Bioclimatic modelling

KW - Black-veined white

KW - Mazarine blue

KW - Polyommatus semiargus

KW - REINTRODUCTION BIOLOGY

KW - HABITAT FRAGMENTATION

KW - ASSISTED COLONIZATION

KW - BIOCLIMATIC ENVELOPE

KW - BRITISH BUTTERFLIES

KW - RANGE BOUNDARIES

KW - FUTURE RANGES

KW - IMPACTS

KW - MODELS

KW - RISK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=68449099926&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.biocon.2009.04.010

DO - 10.1016/j.biocon.2009.04.010

M3 - Article

SN - 0006-3207

VL - 142

SP - 2114

EP - 2121

JO - Biological Conservation

JF - Biological Conservation

IS - 10

ER -