Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year

Callum James MacGregor; Chris Thomas; David B. Roy; Mark Beaumont; Bell James; Tom Brereton; Jon R Bridle; Calvin Dytham; Richard Fox; Karl Gotthard; Ary Hoffman; Geoff Martin; Ian  Middlebrook; Sӧren Nylin; Philip John Platts; Rita Rasteiro; Ilik Saccheri; Romain Villoutreix; Christopher Wheat; Jane Katharine Hill

doi:10.1038/s41467-019-12479-w

Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year

Callum James MacGregor, Chris Thomas, David B. Roy, Mark Beaumont, Bell James, Tom Brereton, Jon R Bridle, Calvin Dytham, Richard Fox, Karl Gotthard, Ary Hoffman, Geoff Martin, Ian Middlebrook, Sӧren Nylin, Philip John Platts, Rita Rasteiro, Ilik Saccheri, Romain Villoutreix, Christopher Wheat, Jane Katharine Hill

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Advances in phenology (the annual timing of species’ life-cycles) in response to climate change are generally viewed as bioindicators of climate change, but have not been considered as predictors of range expansions. Here, we show that phenology advances combine with the number of reproductive cycles per year (voltinism) to shape abundance and distribution trends in 130 species of British Lepidoptera, in response to ~0.5 °C spring-temperature warming between 1995 and 2014. Early adult emergence in warm years resulted in increased within- and between-year population growth for species with multiple reproductive cycles per year (n = 39 multivoltine species). By contrast, early emergence had neutral or negative consequences for species with a single annual reproductive cycle (n = 91 univoltine species), depending on habitat specialisation. We conclude that phenology advances facilitate polewards range expansions in species exhibiting plasticity for both phenology and voltinism, but may inhibit expansion by less flexible species.

Original language	English
Article number	4455
Number of pages	10
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	10
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12479-w
Publication status	Published - 24 Oct 2019

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Calvin Dytham
- calvin.dythamyork.acuk
- Biology - Professor
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MacGregor, C. J., Thomas, C., Roy, D. B., Beaumont, M., James, B., Brereton, T., Bridle, J. R., Dytham, C., Fox, R., Gotthard, K., Hoffman, A., Martin, G., Middlebrook, I., Nylin, S., Platts, P. J., Rasteiro, R., Saccheri, I., Villoutreix, R., Wheat, C., & Hill, J. K. (2019). Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year. Nature Communications, 10, Article 4455. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12479-w

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title = "Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year",

abstract = "Advances in phenology (the annual timing of species{\textquoteright} life-cycles) in response to climate change are generally viewed as bioindicators of climate change, but have not been considered as predictors of range expansions. Here, we show that phenology advances combine with the number of reproductive cycles per year (voltinism) to shape abundance and distribution trends in 130 species of British Lepidoptera, in response to ~0.5 °C spring-temperature warming between 1995 and 2014. Early adult emergence in warm years resulted in increased within- and between-year population growth for species with multiple reproductive cycles per year (n = 39 multivoltine species). By contrast, early emergence had neutral or negative consequences for species with a single annual reproductive cycle (n = 91 univoltine species), depending on habitat specialisation. We conclude that phenology advances facilitate polewards range expansions in species exhibiting plasticity for both phenology and voltinism, but may inhibit expansion by less flexible species.",

author = "MacGregor, {Callum James} and Chris Thomas and Roy, {David B.} and Mark Beaumont and Bell James and Tom Brereton and Bridle, {Jon R} and Calvin Dytham and Richard Fox and Karl Gotthard and Ary Hoffman and Geoff Martin and Ian Middlebrook and Sӧren Nylin and Platts, {Philip John} and Rita Rasteiro and Ilik Saccheri and Romain Villoutreix and Christopher Wheat and Hill, {Jane Katharine}",

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MacGregor, CJ , Thomas, C, Roy, DB, Beaumont, M, James, B, Brereton, T, Bridle, JR, Dytham, C, Fox, R, Gotthard, K, Hoffman, A, Martin, G, Middlebrook, I, Nylin, S, Platts, PJ, Rasteiro, R, Saccheri, I, Villoutreix, R, Wheat, C & Hill, JK 2019, 'Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year', Nature Communications, vol. 10, 4455. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12479-w

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AU - MacGregor, Callum James

AU - Thomas, Chris

AU - Roy, David B.

AU - Beaumont, Mark

AU - James, Bell

AU - Brereton, Tom

AU - Bridle, Jon R

AU - Dytham, Calvin

AU - Fox, Richard

AU - Gotthard, Karl

AU - Hoffman, Ary

AU - Martin, Geoff

AU - Middlebrook, Ian

AU - Nylin, Sӧren

AU - Platts, Philip John

AU - Rasteiro, Rita

AU - Saccheri, Ilik

AU - Villoutreix, Romain

AU - Wheat, Christopher

AU - Hill, Jane Katharine

N1 - This is an author-produced version of the published paper. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher’s self-archiving policy. Further copying may not be permitted; contact the publisher for details.

PY - 2019/10/24

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N2 - Advances in phenology (the annual timing of species’ life-cycles) in response to climate change are generally viewed as bioindicators of climate change, but have not been considered as predictors of range expansions. Here, we show that phenology advances combine with the number of reproductive cycles per year (voltinism) to shape abundance and distribution trends in 130 species of British Lepidoptera, in response to ~0.5 °C spring-temperature warming between 1995 and 2014. Early adult emergence in warm years resulted in increased within- and between-year population growth for species with multiple reproductive cycles per year (n = 39 multivoltine species). By contrast, early emergence had neutral or negative consequences for species with a single annual reproductive cycle (n = 91 univoltine species), depending on habitat specialisation. We conclude that phenology advances facilitate polewards range expansions in species exhibiting plasticity for both phenology and voltinism, but may inhibit expansion by less flexible species.

AB - Advances in phenology (the annual timing of species’ life-cycles) in response to climate change are generally viewed as bioindicators of climate change, but have not been considered as predictors of range expansions. Here, we show that phenology advances combine with the number of reproductive cycles per year (voltinism) to shape abundance and distribution trends in 130 species of British Lepidoptera, in response to ~0.5 °C spring-temperature warming between 1995 and 2014. Early adult emergence in warm years resulted in increased within- and between-year population growth for species with multiple reproductive cycles per year (n = 39 multivoltine species). By contrast, early emergence had neutral or negative consequences for species with a single annual reproductive cycle (n = 91 univoltine species), depending on habitat specialisation. We conclude that phenology advances facilitate polewards range expansions in species exhibiting plasticity for both phenology and voltinism, but may inhibit expansion by less flexible species.

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VL - 10

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

M1 - 4455

ER -

Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year

Abstract

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Calvin Dytham

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