Cold spot microrefugia hold the key to survival for Brazil's Critically Endangered Araucaria tree

TY - JOUR

T1 - Cold spot microrefugia hold the key to survival for Brazil's Critically Endangered Araucaria tree

AU - Wilson, Oliver J.

AU - Walters, Richard J.

AU - Mayle, Francis E.

AU - Lingner, Débora V.

AU - Vibrans, Alexander C.

N1 - © 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an author-produced version of the published paper. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher’s self-archiving policy. Further copying may not be permitted; contact the publisher for details

PY - 2019/12/1

Y1 - 2019/12/1

N2 - Brazil's Araucaria tree (Araucaria angustifolia) is an iconic living fossil and a defining element of the Atlantic Forest global biodiversity hotspot. But despite more than two millennia as a cultural icon in southern Brazil, Araucaria is on the brink of extinction, having lost 97% of its extent to 20th-century logging. Although logging is now illegal, 21st-century climate change constitutes a new—but so far unevaluated—threat to Araucaria's future survival. We use a robust ensemble modelling approach, using recently developed climate data, high-resolution topography and fine-scale vegetation maps, to predict the species' response to climate change and its implications for conservation on meso- and microclimate scales. We show that climate-only models predict the total disappearance of Araucaria's most suitable habitat by 2070, but incorporating topographic effects allows potential highland microrefugia to be identified. The legacy of 20th-century destruction is evident—more than a third of these likely holdouts have already lost their natural vegetation—and 21st-century climate change will leave just 3.5% of remnant forest and 28.4% of highland grasslands suitable for Araucaria. Existing protected areas cover only 2.5% of the surviving microrefugia for this culturally important species, and none occur in any designated indigenous territory. Our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to commit Araucaria to a second consecutive century of significant losses, but targeted interventions could help ensure its survival in the wild.

AB - Brazil's Araucaria tree (Araucaria angustifolia) is an iconic living fossil and a defining element of the Atlantic Forest global biodiversity hotspot. But despite more than two millennia as a cultural icon in southern Brazil, Araucaria is on the brink of extinction, having lost 97% of its extent to 20th-century logging. Although logging is now illegal, 21st-century climate change constitutes a new—but so far unevaluated—threat to Araucaria's future survival. We use a robust ensemble modelling approach, using recently developed climate data, high-resolution topography and fine-scale vegetation maps, to predict the species' response to climate change and its implications for conservation on meso- and microclimate scales. We show that climate-only models predict the total disappearance of Araucaria's most suitable habitat by 2070, but incorporating topographic effects allows potential highland microrefugia to be identified. The legacy of 20th-century destruction is evident—more than a third of these likely holdouts have already lost their natural vegetation—and 21st-century climate change will leave just 3.5% of remnant forest and 28.4% of highland grasslands suitable for Araucaria. Existing protected areas cover only 2.5% of the surviving microrefugia for this culturally important species, and none occur in any designated indigenous territory. Our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to commit Araucaria to a second consecutive century of significant losses, but targeted interventions could help ensure its survival in the wild.

KW - Araucaria angustifolia

KW - Brazil

KW - climate change

KW - conservation

KW - microrefugia

KW - species distribution modelling

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85070313101&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1111/gcb.14755

DO - 10.1111/gcb.14755

M3 - Article

C2 - 31301686

AN - SCOPUS:85070313101

SN - 1354-1013

VL - 25

SP - 4339

EP - 4351

JO - Global Change Biology

JF - Global Change Biology

IS - 12

ER -