Comment on “Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change”

Dana Nuccitelli, Kevin Cowtan, Peter Jacobs, Mark Richardson, Robert G. Way, Anne-Marie Blackburn, Martin B. Stolpe, John Cook

Research output: Contribution to journalComment/debatepeer-review


Lu (2013) (L13) argued that solar effects and anthropogenic halogenated gases can explain most of the observed warming of global mean surface air temperatures since 1850, with virtually no contribution from atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. Here we show that this conclusion is based on assumptions about the saturation of the CO2-induced greenhouse effect that have been experimentally falsified. L13 also confuses equilibrium and transient response, and relies on data sources that have been superseeded due to known inaccuracies. Furthermore, the statistical approach of sequential linear regression artificially shifts variance onto the first predictor. L13's artificial choice of regression order and neglect of other relevant data is the fundamental cause of the incorrect main conclusion. Consideration of more modern data and a more parsimonious multiple regression model leads to contradiction with L13's statistical results. Finally, the correlation arguments in L13 are falsified by considering either the more appropriate metric of global heat accumulation, or data on longer timescales.
Original languageEnglish
Article number1482003
Number of pages16
JournalInternational Journal of Modern Physics B
Issue number13
Early online date9 Apr 2014
Publication statusPublished - 20 May 2014


  • Chlorofluorocarbons
  • Global warming
  • Global cooling
  • Global heat accumulation
  • Global climate change
  • Climate change

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