By the same authors

From the same journal

Comment on “Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change”

Research output: Contribution to journalComment/debate

Author(s)

  • Dana Nuccitelli
  • Kevin Cowtan
  • Peter Jacobs
  • Mark Richardson
  • Robert G. Way
  • Anne-Marie Blackburn
  • Martin B. Stolpe
  • John Cook

Department/unit(s)

Publication details

JournalInternational Journal of Modern Physics B
DateE-pub ahead of print - 9 Apr 2014
DatePublished (current) - 20 May 2014
Issue number13
Volume28
Number of pages16
Early online date9/04/14
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

Lu (2013) (L13) argued that solar effects and anthropogenic halogenated gases can explain most of the observed warming of global mean surface air temperatures since 1850, with virtually no contribution from atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. Here we show that this conclusion is based on assumptions about the saturation of the CO2-induced greenhouse effect that have been experimentally falsified. L13 also confuses equilibrium and transient response, and relies on data sources that have been superseeded due to known inaccuracies. Furthermore, the statistical approach of sequential linear regression artificially shifts variance onto the first predictor. L13's artificial choice of regression order and neglect of other relevant data is the fundamental cause of the incorrect main conclusion. Consideration of more modern data and a more parsimonious multiple regression model leads to contradiction with L13's statistical results. Finally, the correlation arguments in L13 are falsified by considering either the more appropriate metric of global heat accumulation, or data on longer timescales.

    Research areas

  • Chlorofluorocarbons, Global warming, Global cooling, Global heat accumulation, Global climate change, Climate change

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