Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Author(s)

Department/unit(s)

Publication details

JournalQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
DateE-pub ahead of print - 12 Nov 2013
DatePublished (current) - 1 Jan 2014
Issue number683
Volume140
Number of pages10
Pages (from-to)1935-1944
Early online date12/11/13
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

Incomplete global coverage is a potential source of bias in global temperature reconstructions if the unsampled regions are not uniformly distributed over the planet's surface. The widely used Hadley Centre-Climatic Reseach Unit Version 4 (HadCRUT4) dataset covers on average about 84% of the globe over recent decades, with the unsampled regions being concentrated at the poles and over Africa. Three existing reconstructions with near-global coverage are examined, each suggesting that HadCRUT4 is subject to bias due to its treatment of unobserved regions. Two alternative approaches for reconstructing global temperatures are explored, one based on an optimal interpolation algorithm and the other a hybrid method incorporating additional information from the satellite temperature record. The methods are validated on the basis of their skill at reconstructing omitted sets of observations. Both methods provide results superior to excluding the unsampled regions, with the hybrid method showing particular skill around the regions where no observations are available. Temperature trends are compared for the hybrid global temperature reconstruction and the raw HadCRUT4 data. The widely quoted trend since 1997 in the hybrid global reconstruction is two and a half times greater than the corresponding trend in the coverage-biased HadCRUT4 data. Coverage bias causes a cool bias in recent temperatures relative to the late 1990s, which increases from around 1998 to the present. Trends starting in 1997 or 1998 are particularly biased with respect to the global trend. The issue is exacerbated by the strong El Niño event of 1997-1998, which also tends to suppress trends starting during those years.

Bibliographical note

©2013, The Authors. This content is made available by the publisher under a Creative Commons Attribution Licence. This means that a user may copy, distribute and display the resource providing that they give credit. Users must adhere to the terms of the licence

    Research areas

  • Coverage bias, Instrumental temperature record, Temperature trends

Activities

???prize-relations???

Impacts

  • NOAA/NASA January 2017 Annual Global Analysis for 2016 2016 was third successive record - warm year

    Impact: Environmental, Societal

Discover related content

Find related publications, people, projects, datasets and more using interactive charts.

View graph of relations