Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19

Piers M. Forster; Harriet I. Forster; Mat J. Evans; Matthew J. Gidden; Chris D. Jones; Christoph A. Keller; Robin D. Lamboll; Corinne Le Quéré; Joeri Rogelj; Deborah Rosen; Carl-Friedrich Schleussner; Thomas B. Richardson; Christopher J. Smith; Steven T. Turnock

doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0

Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19

Piers M. Forster, Harriet I. Forster, Mat J. Evans, Matthew J. Gidden, Chris D. Jones, Christoph A. Keller, Robin D. Lamboll, Corinne Le Quéré, Joeri Rogelj, Deborah Rosen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Thomas B. Richardson, Christopher J. Smith, Steven T. Turnock

Chemistry

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Abstract

The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sudden reduction of both GHG emissions and air pollutants. Here, using national mobility data, we estimate global emission reductions for ten species during the period February to June 2020. We estimate that global NOx emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing a short-term cooling since the start of the year. This cooling trend is offset by ~20% reduction in global SO2 emissions that weakens the aerosol cooling effect, causing short-term warming. As a result, we estimate that the direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible, with a cooling of around 0.01 ± 0.005 °C by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario that follows current national policies. In contrast, with an economic recovery tilted towards green stimulus and reductions in fossil fuel investments, it is possible to avoid future warming of 0.3 °C by 2050.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	913–919
Number of pages	7
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	10
Issue number	10
Early online date	7 Aug 2020
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0
Publication status	Published - 1 Oct 2020

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Mathew John Evans
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Forster, P. M., Forster, H. I., Evans, M. J., Gidden, M. J., Jones, C. D., Keller, C. A., Lamboll, R. D., Quéré, C. L., Rogelj, J., Rosen, D., Schleussner, C.-F., Richardson, T. B., Smith, C. J., & Turnock, S. T. (2020). Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19. Nature Climate Change, 10(10), 913–919. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0

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title = "Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19",

abstract = "The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sudden reduction of both GHG emissions and air pollutants. Here, using national mobility data, we estimate global emission reductions for ten species during the period February to June 2020. We estimate that global NOx emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing a short-term cooling since the start of the year. This cooling trend is offset by ~20% reduction in global SO2 emissions that weakens the aerosol cooling effect, causing short-term warming. As a result, we estimate that the direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible, with a cooling of around 0.01 ± 0.005 °C by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario that follows current national policies. In contrast, with an economic recovery tilted towards green stimulus and reductions in fossil fuel investments, it is possible to avoid future warming of 0.3 °C by 2050.",

author = "Forster, {Piers M.} and Forster, {Harriet I.} and Evans, {Mat J.} and Gidden, {Matthew J.} and Jones, {Chris D.} and Keller, {Christoph A.} and Lamboll, {Robin D.} and Qu{\'e}r{\'e}, {Corinne Le} and Joeri Rogelj and Deborah Rosen and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner and Richardson, {Thomas B.} and Smith, {Christopher J.} and Turnock, {Steven T.}",

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AU - Forster, Piers M.

AU - Forster, Harriet I.

AU - Evans, Mat J.

AU - Gidden, Matthew J.

AU - Jones, Chris D.

AU - Keller, Christoph A.

AU - Lamboll, Robin D.

AU - Quéré, Corinne Le

AU - Rogelj, Joeri

AU - Rosen, Deborah

AU - Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

AU - Richardson, Thomas B.

AU - Smith, Christopher J.

AU - Turnock, Steven T.

N1 - This is an author-produced version of the published paper. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher’s self-archiving policy. Further copying may not be permitted; contact the publisher for details.

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N2 - The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sudden reduction of both GHG emissions and air pollutants. Here, using national mobility data, we estimate global emission reductions for ten species during the period February to June 2020. We estimate that global NOx emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing a short-term cooling since the start of the year. This cooling trend is offset by ~20% reduction in global SO2 emissions that weakens the aerosol cooling effect, causing short-term warming. As a result, we estimate that the direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible, with a cooling of around 0.01 ± 0.005 °C by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario that follows current national policies. In contrast, with an economic recovery tilted towards green stimulus and reductions in fossil fuel investments, it is possible to avoid future warming of 0.3 °C by 2050.

AB - The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sudden reduction of both GHG emissions and air pollutants. Here, using national mobility data, we estimate global emission reductions for ten species during the period February to June 2020. We estimate that global NOx emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing a short-term cooling since the start of the year. This cooling trend is offset by ~20% reduction in global SO2 emissions that weakens the aerosol cooling effect, causing short-term warming. As a result, we estimate that the direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible, with a cooling of around 0.01 ± 0.005 °C by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario that follows current national policies. In contrast, with an economic recovery tilted towards green stimulus and reductions in fossil fuel investments, it is possible to avoid future warming of 0.3 °C by 2050.

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JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

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ER -

Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19

Abstract

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Mathew John Evans

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