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Cuts to local government spending, multimorbidity and health-related quality of life: a longitudinal ecological study in England

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Author(s)

  • Jonathan Stokes
  • Peter Bower
  • Bruce Guthrie
  • Stewart W. Mercer
  • Nigel Rice
  • Andrew M Ryan
  • Matthew Sutton

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Publication details

JournalThe Lancet Regional Health Europe
DateAccepted/In press - 27 May 2022
DateE-pub ahead of print (current) - 10 Jun 2022
Early online date10/06/22
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

Background
Population health has stagnated or is declining in many high-income countries. We analysed whether nationally administered austerity cuts in England were associated with prevalence of multimorbidity (individuals with two or more long-term conditions) and health-related quality of life.

Methods
We conducted an observational, longitudinal study on 147 local authorities in England. We examined associations of changes in spending over time (2009/10-2017/18), in total and by budget line, with (i) prevalence of multimorbidity, 2+ conditions (2011/12-2017/18), and (ii) health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L) score (2012/13-2016/17). We estimated linear, log-log regression models, incorporating local authority fixed-effects, time-varying demographic and socio-economic confounders, and time trends.

Findings
All local authorities experienced real spending cuts, varying from 42% (Barking and Dagenham) to 0·3% (Sefton). A 1% cut in per capita total service expenditure was associated with a 0·10% (95% CI 0·03 to 0·16) increase in prevalence of multimorbidity. We found no association (0·003%; 95% CI -0·01 to 0·01) with health-related quality of life. By budget line, after controlling for other spending, a 1% cut in public health expenditure was associated with a 0·15% (95% CI 0·11 to 0·20) increase in prevalence of multimorbidity, and a 1% cut in adult social care expenditure was associated with a 0·01% (95% CI 0·002 to 0·02) decrease in average health-related quality of life.

Interpretation
Fiscal austerity is associated with worse multimorbidity and health-related quality of life. Policymakers should consider the potential health consequences of local government expenditure cuts and knock-on effects for health systems.

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