Discrepancy between simulated and observed ethane and propane levels explained by underestimated fossil emissions

Stig B. Dalsøren; Gunnar Myhre; Øivind Hodnebrog; Cathrine Lund Myhre; Andreas Stohl; Ignacio Pisso; Stefan Schwietzke; Lena Höglund-Isaksson; Detlev Helmig; Stefan Reimann; Stéphane Sauvage; Norbert Schmidbauer; Katie A. Read; Lucy J. Carpenter; Alastair C. Lewis; Shalini Punjabi; Markus Wallasch

doi:10.1038/s41561-018-0073-0

Discrepancy between simulated and observed ethane and propane levels explained by underestimated fossil emissions

Stig B. Dalsøren^*, Gunnar Myhre, Øivind Hodnebrog, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Andreas Stohl, Ignacio Pisso, Stefan Schwietzke, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Detlev Helmig, Stefan Reimann, Stéphane Sauvage, Norbert Schmidbauer, Katie A. Read, Lucy J. Carpenter, Alastair C. Lewis, Shalini Punjabi, Markus Wallasch

^*Corresponding author for this work

Chemistry

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Ethane and propane are the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbons in the atmosphere. However, their emissions, atmospheric distribution, and trends in their atmospheric concentrations are insufficiently understood. Atmospheric model simulations using standard community emission inventories do not reproduce available measurements in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we show that observations of pre-industrial and present-day ethane and propane can be reproduced in simulations with a detailed atmospheric chemistry transport model, provided that natural geologic emissions are taken into account and anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions are assumed to be two to three times higher than is indicated in current inventories. Accounting for these enhanced ethane and propane emissions results in simulated surface ozone concentrations that are 5–13% higher than previously assumed in some polluted regions in Asia. The improved correspondence with observed ethane and propane in model simulations with greater emissions suggests that the level of fossil (geologic + fossil fuel) methane emissions in current inventories may need re-evaluation.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	178-184
Number of pages	7
Journal	Nature Geoscience
Volume	11
Issue number	3
Early online date	26 Feb 2018
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0073-0
Publication status	Published - Mar 2018

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© 2018 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. This is an author-produced version of the published paper. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher’s self-archiving policy. Further copying may not be permitted; contact the publisher for details

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Cite this

Dalsøren, S. B., Myhre, G., Hodnebrog, Ø., Myhre, C. L., Stohl, A., Pisso, I., Schwietzke, S., Höglund-Isaksson, L., Helmig, D., Reimann, S., Sauvage, S., Schmidbauer, N., Read, K. A., Carpenter, L. J., Lewis, A. C., Punjabi, S., & Wallasch , M. (2018). Discrepancy between simulated and observed ethane and propane levels explained by underestimated fossil emissions. Nature Geoscience, 11(3), 178-184. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0073-0

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abstract = "Ethane and propane are the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbons in the atmosphere. However, their emissions, atmospheric distribution, and trends in their atmospheric concentrations are insufficiently understood. Atmospheric model simulations using standard community emission inventories do not reproduce available measurements in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we show that observations of pre-industrial and present-day ethane and propane can be reproduced in simulations with a detailed atmospheric chemistry transport model, provided that natural geologic emissions are taken into account and anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions are assumed to be two to three times higher than is indicated in current inventories. Accounting for these enhanced ethane and propane emissions results in simulated surface ozone concentrations that are 5–13% higher than previously assumed in some polluted regions in Asia. The improved correspondence with observed ethane and propane in model simulations with greater emissions suggests that the level of fossil (geologic + fossil fuel) methane emissions in current inventories may need re-evaluation.",

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Dalsøren, SB, Myhre, G, Hodnebrog, Ø, Myhre, CL, Stohl, A, Pisso, I, Schwietzke, S, Höglund-Isaksson, L, Helmig, D, Reimann, S, Sauvage, S, Schmidbauer, N, Read, KA , Carpenter, LJ , Lewis, AC, Punjabi, S & Wallasch , M 2018, 'Discrepancy between simulated and observed ethane and propane levels explained by underestimated fossil emissions', Nature Geoscience, vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 178-184. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0073-0

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AU - Lewis, Alastair C.

AU - Punjabi, Shalini

AU - Wallasch , Markus

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N2 - Ethane and propane are the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbons in the atmosphere. However, their emissions, atmospheric distribution, and trends in their atmospheric concentrations are insufficiently understood. Atmospheric model simulations using standard community emission inventories do not reproduce available measurements in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we show that observations of pre-industrial and present-day ethane and propane can be reproduced in simulations with a detailed atmospheric chemistry transport model, provided that natural geologic emissions are taken into account and anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions are assumed to be two to three times higher than is indicated in current inventories. Accounting for these enhanced ethane and propane emissions results in simulated surface ozone concentrations that are 5–13% higher than previously assumed in some polluted regions in Asia. The improved correspondence with observed ethane and propane in model simulations with greater emissions suggests that the level of fossil (geologic + fossil fuel) methane emissions in current inventories may need re-evaluation.

AB - Ethane and propane are the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbons in the atmosphere. However, their emissions, atmospheric distribution, and trends in their atmospheric concentrations are insufficiently understood. Atmospheric model simulations using standard community emission inventories do not reproduce available measurements in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we show that observations of pre-industrial and present-day ethane and propane can be reproduced in simulations with a detailed atmospheric chemistry transport model, provided that natural geologic emissions are taken into account and anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions are assumed to be two to three times higher than is indicated in current inventories. Accounting for these enhanced ethane and propane emissions results in simulated surface ozone concentrations that are 5–13% higher than previously assumed in some polluted regions in Asia. The improved correspondence with observed ethane and propane in model simulations with greater emissions suggests that the level of fossil (geologic + fossil fuel) methane emissions in current inventories may need re-evaluation.

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Discrepancy between simulated and observed ethane and propane levels explained by underestimated fossil emissions

Abstract

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Lucy Jane Carpenter

Alastair Lewis

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Discrepancy between simulated and observed ethane and propane levels explained by underestimated fossil emissions

Abstract

Bibliographical note

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Lucy Jane Carpenter

Alastair Lewis

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