Emission inventories for SO2 and NOx in developing country regions in 1995 with projected emissions for 2025 according to two scenarios.

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Top-down inventories of anthropogenic SO2 and NOx emissions were compiled for 1995 for developing country regions. Regional emission factors were used to generate two sets of projected emissions for 2025. For the first set, regional emission factors were calculated assuming no further improvements in emission control over 1995 levels whereas for the second it was assumed that, by 2025, controls converge to the 1995 average levels for OECD countries. Without further improvements in emission controls, 2- to 4-fold increases in SO2 and NOx emissions are projected for developing country regions by 2025. Asian emissions would be particularly high with SO2 and NOx emissions projected to increase to 30.7 Tg S yr(-1) and 8.8 Tg N yr(-1) respectively in the 'China+' region (China, Korea (D.P.R.), Laos, Mongolia, Vietnam) and 18.6 Tg S yr(-1) and 8.5 Tg N yr(-1) in South & Southeast Asia. Mapping these emissions shows that the increases would be concentrated in eastern China, Taiwan and the Republic of Korea. Technological convergence of emission controls in developing country regions would lessen the projected emissions by 14% to 30% for SO2 and by 10% to 20% for NOx. A faster rate of emission control convergence and/or increased use of emission prevention approaches will be required if the 1 1/2- to 3-fold increases in SO2 and NOx, emissions projected under the convergence scenario are to be avoided.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)217-222
Number of pages6
JournalWater, Air, & Soil Pollution
Issue number1-4
Publication statusPublished - 2001


  • SO2
  • NOx
  • emission inventory
  • developing countries
  • scenario projections
  • ASIA

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