Fixing the cracks in the crystal ball: a maturity model for quantitative risk assessment

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Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is widely practiced in system safety, but there is insufficient evidence that QRA in general is fit for purpose. Defenders of QRA draw a distinction between poor or misused QRA and correct, appropriately used QRA, but this distinction is only useful if we have robust ways to identify the flaws in an individual QRA. In this paper we present a comprehensive maturity model for QRA which covers all the potential flaws discussed in the risk assessment literature and in a collection of risk assessment peer reviews. We provide initial validation of the completeness and realism of the model.
Our risk assessment maturity model provides a way to prioritise both process development within an organisation and empirical research within the QRA community.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)67-81
Number of pages15
JournalReliability Engineering and System Safety
Publication statusPublished - May 2014

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© 2013 Elsevier. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Reliability Engineering & System Safety. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.

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