Generalizing the Elo rating system for multiplayer games and races: why endurance is better than speed

Ben Powell

doi:10.1515/jqas-2023-0004

Generalizing the Elo rating system for multiplayer games and races: why endurance is better than speed

Ben Powell

Mathematics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

We introduce a non-standard generalization of the Elo rating system for competitions involving two or more participants. The new system can be understood as an on-line estimation algorithm for the parameters of a Plackett-Luce model which can be used to make probabilistic forecasts for the results of future competitions. The system's distinguishing feature is the way it treats competitions as sequences of elimination-type rounds that sequentially identify the worst competitors rather than sequences of selection-type rounds that identify the best. The significance of this important modelling choice is discussed and its consequences are explored. Finally, our generalized Elo system's predictive power is demonstrated using data from Formula One racing.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	223-243
Number of pages	21
Journal	Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports
Volume	19
Issue number	3
Early online date	30 Jun 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2023-0004
Publication status	Published - 28 Sept 2023

Bibliographical note

© 2023 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston. This is an author-produced version of the published paper. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher’s self-archiving policy. Further copying may not be permitted; contact the publisher for details

Access to Document

10.1515/jqas-2023-0004

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© 2023 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston. This is an author-produced version of the published paper. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher’s self-archiving policy. Further copying may not be permitted; contact the publisher for details
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Cite this

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