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Richardson+et+al_2018_Environ._Res._Lett._10.1088_1748-9326_aab305
1.02 MB, PDF document
Journal | Environmental Research Letters |
---|---|
Date | Accepted/In press - 1 Mar 2018 |
Date | E-pub ahead of print - 1 Mar 2018 |
Date | Published (current) - 1 May 2018 |
Issue number | 5 |
Volume | 13 |
Number of pages | 8 |
Pages (from-to) | 1-8 |
Early online date | 1/03/18 |
Original language | English |
The Paris Agreement on climate change aims to limit 'global average temperature' rise to 'well below 2 °C' but reported temperature depends on choices about how to blend air and water temperature data, handle changes in sea ice and account for regions with missing data. Here we use CMIP5 climate model simulations to estimate how these choices affect reported warming and carbon budgets consistent with the Paris Agreement. By the 2090s, under a low-emissions scenario, modelled global near-surface air temperature rise is 15% higher (5%-95% range 6%-21%) than that estimated by an approach similar to the HadCRUT4 observational record. The difference reduces to 8% with global data coverage, or 4% with additional removal of a bias associated with changing sea-ice cover. Comparison of observational datasets with different data sources or infilling techniques supports our model results regarding incomplete coverage. From high-emission simulations, we find that a HadCRUT4 like definition means higher carbon budgets and later exceedance of temperature thresholds, relative to global near-surface air temperature. 2 °C warming is delayed by seven years on average, to 2048 (2035-2060), and CO2 emissions budget for a >50% chance of <2 °C warming increases by 67 GtC (246 GtCO2).
2018, The Author(s).
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