TY - GEN
T1 - How will renewable power generation be affected by climate change? - The case of a metropolitan region in Northwest Germany
AU - Wachsmuth, Jakob
AU - Blohm, Andrew
AU - Gößling-Reisemann, Stefan
AU - Eickemeier, Tobias
AU - Gasper, Rebecca
AU - Ruth, Matthias
AU - Stührmann, Sönke
PY - 2012
Y1 - 2012
N2 - Energy systems that primarily use wind and solar power production are in need of long-term storage of electricity and fully developed transmission grids. Moreover, they may be strongly affected by climate changes. We present two models that assess the impacts of climate change on solar and wind power generation and use them to evaluate climate projections based on the A1B scenario for Germany's Northwest Metropolitan Region. For these projections the seasonal profile of solar power production is not affected despite less cloud coverage during the summer, while the seasonal profile of wind power production has a more pronounced seasonal peak during the wint er due to slightly increasing wind speeds. We compare the obtained seasonal profiles to different scenarios for electricity demand. For each scenario we identify the ratio of wind and solar power generation that minimizes the variance of the residual load at the monthly time scale under the premise of a full supply by wind and solar power. Our results suggest that the need for long-term storage of electricity and the need for extensions of the transmission grid will even increase because of climate change impacts in the Northwest Metropolitan Region over the next century.
AB - Energy systems that primarily use wind and solar power production are in need of long-term storage of electricity and fully developed transmission grids. Moreover, they may be strongly affected by climate changes. We present two models that assess the impacts of climate change on solar and wind power generation and use them to evaluate climate projections based on the A1B scenario for Germany's Northwest Metropolitan Region. For these projections the seasonal profile of solar power production is not affected despite less cloud coverage during the summer, while the seasonal profile of wind power production has a more pronounced seasonal peak during the wint er due to slightly increasing wind speeds. We compare the obtained seasonal profiles to different scenarios for electricity demand. For each scenario we identify the ratio of wind and solar power generation that minimizes the variance of the residual load at the monthly time scale under the premise of a full supply by wind and solar power. Our results suggest that the need for long-term storage of electricity and the need for extensions of the transmission grid will even increase because of climate change impacts in the Northwest Metropolitan Region over the next century.
KW - Impact assessment models
KW - Regional climate change
KW - Renewable energy sources
KW - Seasonal load profiles
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84896508656&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84896508656
SN - 9788866553229
T3 - Proceedings of the 25th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization and Simulation of Energy Conversion Systems and Processes, ECOS 2012
SP - 71
EP - 87
BT - Proceedings of the 25th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization and Simulation of Energy Conversion Systems and Processes, ECOS 2012
PB - Aabo Akademi University
T2 - 25th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization and Simulation of Energy Conversion Systems and Processes, ECOS 2012
Y2 - 26 June 2012 through 29 June 2012
ER -