Impacts and mitigation of excess diesel-related NO x emissions in 11 major vehicle markets

TY - JOUR

T1 - Impacts and mitigation of excess diesel-related NO x emissions in 11 major vehicle markets

AU - Anenberg, Susan C.

AU - Miller, Joshua

AU - Minjares, Ray

AU - Du, Li

AU - Henze, Daven K.

AU - Lacey, Forrest

AU - Malley, Christopher

AU - Emberson, Lisa Dianne

AU - Franco, Vicente

AU - Klimont, Z.

AU - Heyes, Chris

N1 - © 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. .This is an author-produced version of the published paper. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher’s self-archiving policy. Further copying may not be permitted; contact the publisher for details.

PY - 2017/5/25

Y1 - 2017/5/25

N2 - Vehicle emissions contribute to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) and tropospheric ozone air pollution, affecting human health, crop yields and climate worldwide. On-road diesel vehicles produce approximately 20 per cent of global anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x), which are key PM 2.5 and ozone precursors. Regulated NO x emission limits in leading markets have been progressively tightened, but current diesel vehicles emit far more NO x under real-world operating conditions than during laboratory certification testing. Here we show that across 11 markets, representing approximately 80 per cent of global diesel vehicle sales, nearly one-third of on-road heavy-duty diesel vehicle emissions and over half of on-road light-duty diesel vehicle emissions are in excess of certification limits. These excess emissions (totalling 4.6 million tons) are associated with about 38,000 PM 2.5 - and ozone-related premature deaths globally in 2015, including about 10 per cent of all ozone-related premature deaths in the 28 European Union member states. Heavy-duty vehicles are the dominant contributor to excess diesel NO x emissions and associated health impacts in almost all regions. Adopting and enforcing next-generation standards (more stringent than Euro 6/VI) could nearly eliminate real-world diesel-related NO x emissions in these markets, avoiding approximately 174,000 global PM 2.5 - and ozone-related premature deaths in 2040. Most of these benefits can be achieved by implementing Euro VI standards where they have not yet been adopted for heavy-duty vehicles.

AB - Vehicle emissions contribute to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) and tropospheric ozone air pollution, affecting human health, crop yields and climate worldwide. On-road diesel vehicles produce approximately 20 per cent of global anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x), which are key PM 2.5 and ozone precursors. Regulated NO x emission limits in leading markets have been progressively tightened, but current diesel vehicles emit far more NO x under real-world operating conditions than during laboratory certification testing. Here we show that across 11 markets, representing approximately 80 per cent of global diesel vehicle sales, nearly one-third of on-road heavy-duty diesel vehicle emissions and over half of on-road light-duty diesel vehicle emissions are in excess of certification limits. These excess emissions (totalling 4.6 million tons) are associated with about 38,000 PM 2.5 - and ozone-related premature deaths globally in 2015, including about 10 per cent of all ozone-related premature deaths in the 28 European Union member states. Heavy-duty vehicles are the dominant contributor to excess diesel NO x emissions and associated health impacts in almost all regions. Adopting and enforcing next-generation standards (more stringent than Euro 6/VI) could nearly eliminate real-world diesel-related NO x emissions in these markets, avoiding approximately 174,000 global PM 2.5 - and ozone-related premature deaths in 2040. Most of these benefits can be achieved by implementing Euro VI standards where they have not yet been adopted for heavy-duty vehicles.

U2 - 10.1038/nature22086

DO - 10.1038/nature22086

M3 - Article

VL - 545

SP - 467

EP - 471

JO - Nature

JF - Nature

SN - 0028-0836

IS - 7655

ER -