Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on Mexico wheat production

TY - JOUR

T1 - Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on Mexico wheat production

AU - Gaurin, Jose Rafael

AU - Emberson, Lisa Dianne

AU - Simpson, David

AU - Hernandez-Ochoa, Ixchel

AU - Rowland, Diane

AU - Asseng, Senthold

N1 - © Springer Nature B.V. 2019. This is an author-produced version of the published paper. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher’s self-archiving policy. Further copying may not be permitted; contact the publisher for details.

PY - 2019/5/8

Y1 - 2019/5/8

N2 - Wheat is an important staple crop sensitive to negative effects from elevated tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations, but the impacts of future O3 concentrations on wheat production in Mexico are unknown. To determine these impacts, the O3-modified DSSAT-NWheat crop model was used to simulate wheat production in Mexico using a baseline scenariowith pre-industrial O3 concentrations from 1980 to 2010 and five Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario from 2041 to 2070 paired with future O3 concentrations from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) Meteorological Synthesizing Centre–West (MSC-W) model. Thirty-two representative major wheat-producing locations in Mexico were simulated assuming both irrigated and rainfed conditions for two O3 sensitivity cultivar classifications.The simulations showed large variability (after averaging over 30 years) in yield loss, ranging from 7 to 26% because of O3 impact, depending on the location, irrigation, and climate change emissions scenario. After upscaling and aggregating the simulations to the country scale based on observed irrigated and rainfed production, national wheat production for Mexico is expected todecline by 12% under the future RCP 8.5 climate change scenario with additional losses of 7 to 18% because of O3 impact, depending on the cultivar O3 sensitivity. This yield loss caused by O3 is comparable with, or even larger than, the impact from projected future climatic change in temperature, rainfall, and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Therefore, O3 impacts should be considered infuture agricultural impact assessments.

AB - Wheat is an important staple crop sensitive to negative effects from elevated tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations, but the impacts of future O3 concentrations on wheat production in Mexico are unknown. To determine these impacts, the O3-modified DSSAT-NWheat crop model was used to simulate wheat production in Mexico using a baseline scenariowith pre-industrial O3 concentrations from 1980 to 2010 and five Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario from 2041 to 2070 paired with future O3 concentrations from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) Meteorological Synthesizing Centre–West (MSC-W) model. Thirty-two representative major wheat-producing locations in Mexico were simulated assuming both irrigated and rainfed conditions for two O3 sensitivity cultivar classifications.The simulations showed large variability (after averaging over 30 years) in yield loss, ranging from 7 to 26% because of O3 impact, depending on the location, irrigation, and climate change emissions scenario. After upscaling and aggregating the simulations to the country scale based on observed irrigated and rainfed production, national wheat production for Mexico is expected todecline by 12% under the future RCP 8.5 climate change scenario with additional losses of 7 to 18% because of O3 impact, depending on the cultivar O3 sensitivity. This yield loss caused by O3 is comparable with, or even larger than, the impact from projected future climatic change in temperature, rainfall, and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Therefore, O3 impacts should be considered infuture agricultural impact assessments.

KW - Crop model .Wheat yield . Emissions scenario . Future impact . Food security

U2 - 10.1007/s10584-019-02451-4

DO - 10.1007/s10584-019-02451-4

M3 - Article

SN - 0165-0009

JO - Climatic change

JF - Climatic change

ER -