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Inference of Break-Points in High-Dimensional Time Series

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JournalJournal of the American Statistical Association
DateAccepted/In press - 16 Feb 2021
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

We consider a new procedure for detecting structural breaks in mean for high-dimensional time series. We target breaks happening at unknown time points and locations. In particular, at a fixed time point our method is concerned with either the biggest break in one location or aggregating simultaneous breaks over multiple locations. We allow for both big or small sized breaks, so that we can 1), stamp the dates and the locations of the breaks, 2), estimate the break sizes and 3), make inference on the break sizes as well as the break dates. Our theoretical setup incorporates both temporal and cross-sectional dependence, and is suitable for heavy-tailed innovations. We derive the asymptotic distribution for the sizes of the breaks by extending the existing powerful theory on local linear kernel estimation and high dimensional Gaussian approximation to allow for trend stationary time series with jumps. A robust long-run covariance matrix estimation is proposed, which can be of independent interest. An application on detecting structural changes of the US unemployment rate is considered to illustrate the usefulness of our method.

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