Abstract
The gateway hypothesis proposes that use of cannabis directly increases the risk of consuming hard drugs. We test this controversial, but influential, hypothesis on a sample of cannabis users, exploiting a unique set of drug price data. A flexible approach is developed to identify the causal gateway effect using a bivariate survival model with shared frailty estimated using a latent class approach. The model suggests two distinct groups; a smaller group of "troubled youths" for whom there is a statistically significant gateway effect that more than doubles the hazard of starting to use hard drugs and a larger fraction of youths for whom previous cannabis use has less impact.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 583-603 |
| Number of pages | 21 |
| Journal | Empirical Economics |
| Volume | 38 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Jun 2010 |
Bibliographical note
M1 - 3Keywords
- Gateway hypothesis
- Illicit drugs
- Duration analysis
- Latent class models
- DURATION MODELS
- MARIJUANA USE
- CONSUMPTION
- PROGRESSION
- PRICES
- TIME