Jihadist terrorist attacks and far right party preferences: An ‘unexpected event during survey design’ in four European countries

TY - JOUR

T1 - Jihadist terrorist attacks and far right party preferences

T2 - An ‘unexpected event during survey design’ in four European countries

AU - Vlandas, Tim

AU - Halikiopoulou, Daphne

N1 - © The Author(s), 2024

PY - 2024/3/27

Y1 - 2024/3/27

N2 - This article presents new empirical evidence about the impact of Jihadist terrorist attacks on far right preferences using the ‘unexpected event during survey’ research design. This strategy allows us to match individual-level data from the European Social Survey (ESS) to data on Jihadist terrorist attacks to compare respondents’ party preferences before and after a terrorist attack during the same survey period in the Netherlands, Sweden, France and Germany. We theorise and test three distinct hypotheses about how different combinations of attitudinal changes including out-group prejudice and trust in institutions impact on far right preferences. We find no statistically significant effects. Analyses of the two indirect mechanisms- i.e., prejudice and trust- yield mixed results consistent with the null effect on far right party preferences. By showing that terrorist attacks are unlikely to decisively change party support despite attracting significant public attention and affecting political attitudes, our results challenge the argument that Jihadist terrorism necessarily benefits the far-right and highlight the importance of null effects for overcoming confirmation bias in the study of voting behaviour.

AB - This article presents new empirical evidence about the impact of Jihadist terrorist attacks on far right preferences using the ‘unexpected event during survey’ research design. This strategy allows us to match individual-level data from the European Social Survey (ESS) to data on Jihadist terrorist attacks to compare respondents’ party preferences before and after a terrorist attack during the same survey period in the Netherlands, Sweden, France and Germany. We theorise and test three distinct hypotheses about how different combinations of attitudinal changes including out-group prejudice and trust in institutions impact on far right preferences. We find no statistically significant effects. Analyses of the two indirect mechanisms- i.e., prejudice and trust- yield mixed results consistent with the null effect on far right party preferences. By showing that terrorist attacks are unlikely to decisively change party support despite attracting significant public attention and affecting political attitudes, our results challenge the argument that Jihadist terrorism necessarily benefits the far-right and highlight the importance of null effects for overcoming confirmation bias in the study of voting behaviour.

U2 - 10.1017/S1537592723002980

DO - 10.1017/S1537592723002980

M3 - Article

SN - 1537-5927

JO - Perspectives on Politics

JF - Perspectives on Politics

ER -