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Land cover change and carbon emissions over 100 years in an African biodiversity hotspot

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Land cover change and carbon emissions over 100 years in an African biodiversity hotspot. / Willcock, Simon; Phillips, Oliver L.; Platts, Philip J.; Swetnam, Ruth D.; Balmford, Andrew; Burgess, Neil D.; Ahrends, Antje; Bayliss, Julian; Doggart, Nike; Doody, Kathryn; Fanning, Eibleis; Green, Jonathan Michael Halsey; Hall, Jaclyn; Howell, Kim L.; Lovett, Jon C.; Marchant, Robert; Marshall, Andrew R.; Mbilinyi, Boniface; Munishi, Pantaleon K T; Owen, Nisha; Topp-Jorgensen, Elmer J.; Lewis, Simon L.

In: Global Change Biology, Vol. 22, No. 8, 2016, p. 2787–2800.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Harvard

Willcock, S, Phillips, OL, Platts, PJ, Swetnam, RD, Balmford, A, Burgess, ND, Ahrends, A, Bayliss, J, Doggart, N, Doody, K, Fanning, E, Green, JMH, Hall, J, Howell, KL, Lovett, JC, Marchant, R, Marshall, AR, Mbilinyi, B, Munishi, PKT, Owen, N, Topp-Jorgensen, EJ & Lewis, SL 2016, 'Land cover change and carbon emissions over 100 years in an African biodiversity hotspot', Global Change Biology, vol. 22, no. 8, pp. 2787–2800. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13218

APA

Willcock, S., Phillips, O. L., Platts, P. J., Swetnam, R. D., Balmford, A., Burgess, N. D., ... Lewis, S. L. (2016). Land cover change and carbon emissions over 100 years in an African biodiversity hotspot. Global Change Biology, 22(8), 2787–2800. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13218

Vancouver

Willcock S, Phillips OL, Platts PJ, Swetnam RD, Balmford A, Burgess ND et al. Land cover change and carbon emissions over 100 years in an African biodiversity hotspot. Global Change Biology. 2016;22(8):2787–2800. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13218

Author

Willcock, Simon ; Phillips, Oliver L. ; Platts, Philip J. ; Swetnam, Ruth D. ; Balmford, Andrew ; Burgess, Neil D. ; Ahrends, Antje ; Bayliss, Julian ; Doggart, Nike ; Doody, Kathryn ; Fanning, Eibleis ; Green, Jonathan Michael Halsey ; Hall, Jaclyn ; Howell, Kim L. ; Lovett, Jon C. ; Marchant, Robert ; Marshall, Andrew R. ; Mbilinyi, Boniface ; Munishi, Pantaleon K T ; Owen, Nisha ; Topp-Jorgensen, Elmer J. ; Lewis, Simon L. / Land cover change and carbon emissions over 100 years in an African biodiversity hotspot. In: Global Change Biology. 2016 ; Vol. 22, No. 8. pp. 2787–2800.

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@article{3d048d185d3247c387729d9491af03a4,
title = "Land cover change and carbon emissions over 100 years in an African biodiversity hotspot",
abstract = "Agricultural expansion has resulted in both land use and land cover change (LULCC) across the tropics. However, the spatial and temporal patterns of such change and their resulting impacts are poorly understood, particularly for the pre-satellite era. Here we quantify the LULCC history across the 33.9 million ha watershed of Tanzania's Eastern Arc Mountains, using geo-referenced and digitised historical land cover maps (dated 1908, 1923, 1949 and 2000). Our time series from this biodiversity hotspot shows that forest and savanna area both declined, by 74{\%} (2.8 million ha) and 10{\%} (2.9 million ha), respectively, between 1908 and 2000. This vegetation was replaced by a five-fold increase in cropland, from 1.2 million ha to 6.7 million ha. This LULCC implies a committed release of 0.9 Pg C (95{\%} CI: 0.4-1.5) across the watershed for the same period, equivalent to 0.3 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) . This is at least three-fold higher than previous estimates from global models for the same study area. We then used the LULCC data from before and after protected area creation, as well as from areas where no protection was established, to analyse the effectiveness of legal protection on land cover change despite the underlying spatial variation in protected areas. We found that, between 1949 and 2000, forest expanded within legally protected areas, resulting in carbon uptake of 4.8 (3.8-5.7) Mg C ha(-1) , compared to a committed loss of 11.9 (7.2-16.6) Mg C ha(-1) within areas lacking such protection. Furthermore, for nine protected areas where LULCC data is available prior to and following establishment, we show that protection reduces deforestation rates by 150{\%} relative to unprotected portions of the watershed. Our results highlight that considerable LULCC occurred prior to the satellite era, thus other data sources are required to better understand long-term land cover trends in the tropics. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.",
keywords = "afforestation, deforestation, land use change, protected area, reforestation, carbon, emission, ecosystem service",
author = "Simon Willcock and Phillips, {Oliver L.} and Platts, {Philip J.} and Swetnam, {Ruth D.} and Andrew Balmford and Burgess, {Neil D.} and Antje Ahrends and Julian Bayliss and Nike Doggart and Kathryn Doody and Eibleis Fanning and Green, {Jonathan Michael Halsey} and Jaclyn Hall and Howell, {Kim L.} and Lovett, {Jon C.} and Robert Marchant and Marshall, {Andrew R.} and Boniface Mbilinyi and Munishi, {Pantaleon K T} and Nisha Owen and Topp-Jorgensen, {Elmer J.} and Lewis, {Simon L.}",
note = "This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Global Change Biology. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.",
year = "2016",
doi = "10.1111/gcb.13218",
language = "English",
volume = "22",
pages = "2787–2800",
journal = "Global Change Biology",
issn = "1354-1013",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "8",

}

RIS (suitable for import to EndNote) - Download

TY - JOUR

T1 - Land cover change and carbon emissions over 100 years in an African biodiversity hotspot

AU - Willcock, Simon

AU - Phillips, Oliver L.

AU - Platts, Philip J.

AU - Swetnam, Ruth D.

AU - Balmford, Andrew

AU - Burgess, Neil D.

AU - Ahrends, Antje

AU - Bayliss, Julian

AU - Doggart, Nike

AU - Doody, Kathryn

AU - Fanning, Eibleis

AU - Green, Jonathan Michael Halsey

AU - Hall, Jaclyn

AU - Howell, Kim L.

AU - Lovett, Jon C.

AU - Marchant, Robert

AU - Marshall, Andrew R.

AU - Mbilinyi, Boniface

AU - Munishi, Pantaleon K T

AU - Owen, Nisha

AU - Topp-Jorgensen, Elmer J.

AU - Lewis, Simon L.

N1 - This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Global Change Biology. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.

PY - 2016

Y1 - 2016

N2 - Agricultural expansion has resulted in both land use and land cover change (LULCC) across the tropics. However, the spatial and temporal patterns of such change and their resulting impacts are poorly understood, particularly for the pre-satellite era. Here we quantify the LULCC history across the 33.9 million ha watershed of Tanzania's Eastern Arc Mountains, using geo-referenced and digitised historical land cover maps (dated 1908, 1923, 1949 and 2000). Our time series from this biodiversity hotspot shows that forest and savanna area both declined, by 74% (2.8 million ha) and 10% (2.9 million ha), respectively, between 1908 and 2000. This vegetation was replaced by a five-fold increase in cropland, from 1.2 million ha to 6.7 million ha. This LULCC implies a committed release of 0.9 Pg C (95% CI: 0.4-1.5) across the watershed for the same period, equivalent to 0.3 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) . This is at least three-fold higher than previous estimates from global models for the same study area. We then used the LULCC data from before and after protected area creation, as well as from areas where no protection was established, to analyse the effectiveness of legal protection on land cover change despite the underlying spatial variation in protected areas. We found that, between 1949 and 2000, forest expanded within legally protected areas, resulting in carbon uptake of 4.8 (3.8-5.7) Mg C ha(-1) , compared to a committed loss of 11.9 (7.2-16.6) Mg C ha(-1) within areas lacking such protection. Furthermore, for nine protected areas where LULCC data is available prior to and following establishment, we show that protection reduces deforestation rates by 150% relative to unprotected portions of the watershed. Our results highlight that considerable LULCC occurred prior to the satellite era, thus other data sources are required to better understand long-term land cover trends in the tropics. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

AB - Agricultural expansion has resulted in both land use and land cover change (LULCC) across the tropics. However, the spatial and temporal patterns of such change and their resulting impacts are poorly understood, particularly for the pre-satellite era. Here we quantify the LULCC history across the 33.9 million ha watershed of Tanzania's Eastern Arc Mountains, using geo-referenced and digitised historical land cover maps (dated 1908, 1923, 1949 and 2000). Our time series from this biodiversity hotspot shows that forest and savanna area both declined, by 74% (2.8 million ha) and 10% (2.9 million ha), respectively, between 1908 and 2000. This vegetation was replaced by a five-fold increase in cropland, from 1.2 million ha to 6.7 million ha. This LULCC implies a committed release of 0.9 Pg C (95% CI: 0.4-1.5) across the watershed for the same period, equivalent to 0.3 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1) . This is at least three-fold higher than previous estimates from global models for the same study area. We then used the LULCC data from before and after protected area creation, as well as from areas where no protection was established, to analyse the effectiveness of legal protection on land cover change despite the underlying spatial variation in protected areas. We found that, between 1949 and 2000, forest expanded within legally protected areas, resulting in carbon uptake of 4.8 (3.8-5.7) Mg C ha(-1) , compared to a committed loss of 11.9 (7.2-16.6) Mg C ha(-1) within areas lacking such protection. Furthermore, for nine protected areas where LULCC data is available prior to and following establishment, we show that protection reduces deforestation rates by 150% relative to unprotected portions of the watershed. Our results highlight that considerable LULCC occurred prior to the satellite era, thus other data sources are required to better understand long-term land cover trends in the tropics. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

KW - afforestation

KW - deforestation

KW - land use change

KW - protected area

KW - reforestation

KW - carbon

KW - emission

KW - ecosystem service

U2 - 10.1111/gcb.13218

DO - 10.1111/gcb.13218

M3 - Article

VL - 22

SP - 2787

EP - 2800

JO - Global Change Biology

T2 - Global Change Biology

JF - Global Change Biology

SN - 1354-1013

IS - 8

ER -