Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability

Christine Howard; Emma Liina Marjakangas; Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez; Pietro Milanesi; Aleksandre Abuladze; Karen Aghababyan; Vitalie Ajder; Volen Arkumarev; Dawn E. Balmer; Hans Günther Bauer; Colin M. Beale; Taulant Bino; Kerem Ali Boyla; Ian J. Burfield; Brian Burke; Brian Caffrey; Tomasz Chodkiewicz; Juan Carlos Del Moral; Vlatka Dumbovic Mazal; Néstor Fernández; Lorenzo Fornasari; Bettina Gerlach; Carlos Godinho; Sergi Herrando; Christina Ieronymidou; Alison Johnston; Mihailo Jovicevic; Mikhail Kalyakin; Verena Keller; Peter Knaus; Dražen Kotrošan; Tatiana Kuzmenko; Domingos Leitão; Åke Lindström; Qenan Maxhuni; Tomaž Mihelič; Tibor Mikuska; Blas Molina; Károly Nagy; David Noble; Ingar Jostein Øien; Jean Yves Paquet; Clara Pladevall; Danae Portolou; Dimitrije Radišić; Saša Rajkov; Draženko Z. Rajković; Liutauras Raudonikis; Thomas Sattler; Darko Saveljić; Paul Shimmings; Jovica Sjenicic; Karel Šťastný; Stoycho Stoychev; Iurii Strus; Christoph Sudfeldt; Elchin Sultanov; Tibor Szép; Norbert Teufelbauer; Danka Uzunova; Chris A.M. van Turnhout; Metodija Velevski; Thomas Vikstrøm; Alexandre Vintchevski; Olga Voltzit; Petr Voříšek; Tomasz Wilk; Damaris Zurell; Lluís Brotons; Aleksi Lehikoinen; Stephen G. Willis

doi:10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1

Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability

Christine Howard^*, Emma Liina Marjakangas, Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez, Pietro Milanesi, Aleksandre Abuladze, Karen Aghababyan, Vitalie Ajder, Volen Arkumarev, Dawn E. Balmer, Hans Günther Bauer, Colin M. Beale, Taulant Bino, Kerem Ali Boyla, Ian J. Burfield, Brian Burke, Brian Caffrey, Tomasz Chodkiewicz, Juan Carlos Del Moral, Vlatka Dumbovic Mazal, Néstor FernándezLorenzo Fornasari, Bettina Gerlach, Carlos Godinho, Sergi Herrando, Christina Ieronymidou, Alison Johnston, Mihailo Jovicevic, Mikhail Kalyakin, Verena Keller, Peter Knaus, Dražen Kotrošan, Tatiana Kuzmenko, Domingos Leitão, Åke Lindström, Qenan Maxhuni, Tomaž Mihelič, Tibor Mikuska, Blas Molina, Károly Nagy, David Noble, Ingar Jostein Øien, Jean Yves Paquet, Clara Pladevall, Danae Portolou, Dimitrije Radišić, Saša Rajkov, Draženko Z. Rajković, Liutauras Raudonikis, Thomas Sattler, Darko Saveljić, Paul Shimmings, Jovica Sjenicic, Karel Šťastný, Stoycho Stoychev, Iurii Strus, Christoph Sudfeldt, Elchin Sultanov, Tibor Szép, Norbert Teufelbauer, Danka Uzunova, Chris A.M. van Turnhout, Metodija Velevski, Thomas Vikstrøm, Alexandre Vintchevski, Olga Voltzit, Petr Voříšek, Tomasz Wilk, Damaris Zurell, Lluís Brotons, Aleksi Lehikoinen, Stephen G. Willis^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species’ ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species’ traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species’ range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species’ ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.

Original language	English
Article number	4304
Number of pages	12
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	14
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1
Publication status	Published - 20 Jul 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This work was supported in large part by funding to S.G.W. from NERC (NE/T001038/1) and from a DU Seedcorn Grant (054_19-20), which supported S.G.W. and C.H. to work on the project. A.L. and E.M. were funded by the Academy of Finland (project 323527, 329251). In addition, the research has been funded through the 2017–2018 Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA joint call for research proposals, under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme, and with the funding organisations Academy of Finland (Helsinki: 326338) and the National Science Foundation (CLO, ICER-1927646). A.M.O. was supported by the Spanish Government through the Juan de la Cierva fellowship program—IJCI-2016-30349 and partially supported by the project GREENRISK (PID2020-119933RB-C22). L.B. was partially funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 through the projects SPEAR (PCI2022-135056-2) and CEX-2018-000828-S “Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa”. D.Z. acknowledges support from the German Science Foundation (DFG, grant no. ZU 361-1/1). P.M. is funded by the Research project implemented under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), Project title “National Biodiversity Future Center -NBFC”. CUP J33C22001190001. We thank Mark Eaton and Ruud Foppen for their contributions to this work through the EBCC Atlas Steering Committee. Finally, we would like to thank the European Bird Census Council (EBCC), its partner organisations and the many thousands of ornithologists who contributed to the data collection.

Funding Information:
This work was supported in large part by funding to S.G.W. from NERC (NE/T001038/1) and from a DU Seedcorn Grant (054_19-20), which supported S.G.W. and C.H. to work on the project. A.L. and E.M. were funded by the Academy of Finland (project 323527, 329251). In addition, the research has been funded through the 2017–2018 Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA joint call for research proposals, under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme, and with the funding organisations Academy of Finland (Helsinki: 326338) and the National Science Foundation (CLO, ICER-1927646). A.M.O. was supported by the Spanish Government through the Juan de la Cierva fellowship program—IJCI-2016-30349 and partially supported by the project GREENRISK (PID2020-119933RB-C22). L.B. was partially funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 through the projects SPEAR (PCI2022-135056-2) and CEX-2018-000828-S “Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa”. D.Z. acknowledges support from the German Science Foundation (DFG, grant no. ZU 361-1/1). P.M. is funded by the Research project implemented under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), Project title “National Biodiversity Future Center -NBFC”. CUP J33C22001190001. We thank Mark Eaton and Ruud Foppen for their contributions to this work through the EBCC Atlas Steering Committee. Finally, we would like to thank the European Bird Census Council (EBCC), its partner organisations and the many thousands of ornithologists who contributed to the data collection.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s).

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s41467-023-39093-1
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Final published version, 3.05 MBLicence: CC BY

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Howard, C., Marjakangas, E. L., Morán-Ordóñez, A., Milanesi, P., Abuladze, A., Aghababyan, K., Ajder, V., Arkumarev, V., Balmer, D. E., Bauer, H. G., Beale, C. M., Bino, T., Boyla, K. A., Burfield, I. J., Burke, B., Caffrey, B., Chodkiewicz, T., Del Moral, J. C., Mazal, V. D., ... Willis, S. G. (2023). Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability. Nature Communications, 14(1), Article 4304. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1

@article{852a4cfd979442a09ea70305923357ea,

title = "Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability",

abstract = "Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species{\textquoteright} ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species{\textquoteright} traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species{\textquoteright} range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species{\textquoteright} ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.",

author = "Christine Howard and Marjakangas, {Emma Liina} and Alejandra Mor{\'a}n-Ord{\'o}{\~n}ez and Pietro Milanesi and Aleksandre Abuladze and Karen Aghababyan and Vitalie Ajder and Volen Arkumarev and Balmer, {Dawn E.} and Bauer, {Hans G{\"u}nther} and Beale, {Colin M.} and Taulant Bino and Boyla, {Kerem Ali} and Burfield, {Ian J.} and Brian Burke and Brian Caffrey and Tomasz Chodkiewicz and {Del Moral}, {Juan Carlos} and Mazal, {Vlatka Dumbovic} and N{\'e}stor Fern{\'a}ndez and Lorenzo Fornasari and Bettina Gerlach and Carlos Godinho and Sergi Herrando and Christina Ieronymidou and Alison Johnston and Mihailo Jovicevic and Mikhail Kalyakin and Verena Keller and Peter Knaus and Dra{\v z}en Kotro{\v s}an and Tatiana Kuzmenko and Domingos Leit{\~a}o and {\AA}ke Lindstr{\"o}m and Qenan Maxhuni and Toma{\v z} Miheli{\v c} and Tibor Mikuska and Blas Molina and K{\'a}roly Nagy and David Noble and {\O}ien, {Ingar Jostein} and Paquet, {Jean Yves} and Clara Pladevall and Danae Portolou and Dimitrije Radi{\v s}i{\'c} and Sa{\v s}a Rajkov and Rajkovi{\'c}, {Dra{\v z}enko Z.} and Liutauras Raudonikis and Thomas Sattler and Darko Savelji{\'c} and Paul Shimmings and Jovica Sjenicic and Karel {\v S}{\v t}astn{\'y} and Stoycho Stoychev and Iurii Strus and Christoph Sudfeldt and Elchin Sultanov and Tibor Sz{\'e}p and Norbert Teufelbauer and Danka Uzunova and {van Turnhout}, {Chris A.M.} and Metodija Velevski and Thomas Vikstr{\o}m and Alexandre Vintchevski and Olga Voltzit and Petr Vo{\v r}{\'i}{\v s}ek and Tomasz Wilk and Damaris Zurell and Llu{\'i}s Brotons and Aleksi Lehikoinen and Willis, {Stephen G.}",

note = "Funding Information: This work was supported in large part by funding to S.G.W. from NERC (NE/T001038/1) and from a DU Seedcorn Grant (054_19-20), which supported S.G.W. and C.H. to work on the project. A.L. and E.M. were funded by the Academy of Finland (project 323527, 329251). In addition, the research has been funded through the 2017–2018 Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA joint call for research proposals, under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme, and with the funding organisations Academy of Finland (Helsinki: 326338) and the National Science Foundation (CLO, ICER-1927646). A.M.O. was supported by the Spanish Government through the Juan de la Cierva fellowship program—IJCI-2016-30349 and partially supported by the project GREENRISK (PID2020-119933RB-C22). L.B. was partially funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 through the projects SPEAR (PCI2022-135056-2) and CEX-2018-000828-S “Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa”. D.Z. acknowledges support from the German Science Foundation (DFG, grant no. ZU 361-1/1). P.M. is funded by the Research project implemented under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), Project title “National Biodiversity Future Center -NBFC”. CUP J33C22001190001. We thank Mark Eaton and Ruud Foppen for their contributions to this work through the EBCC Atlas Steering Committee. Finally, we would like to thank the European Bird Census Council (EBCC), its partner organisations and the many thousands of ornithologists who contributed to the data collection. Funding Information: This work was supported in large part by funding to S.G.W. from NERC (NE/T001038/1) and from a DU Seedcorn Grant (054_19-20), which supported S.G.W. and C.H. to work on the project. A.L. and E.M. were funded by the Academy of Finland (project 323527, 329251). In addition, the research has been funded through the 2017–2018 Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA joint call for research proposals, under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme, and with the funding organisations Academy of Finland (Helsinki: 326338) and the National Science Foundation (CLO, ICER-1927646). A.M.O. was supported by the Spanish Government through the Juan de la Cierva fellowship program—IJCI-2016-30349 and partially supported by the project GREENRISK (PID2020-119933RB-C22). L.B. was partially funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 through the projects SPEAR (PCI2022-135056-2) and CEX-2018-000828-S “Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa”. D.Z. acknowledges support from the German Science Foundation (DFG, grant no. ZU 361-1/1). P.M. is funded by the Research project implemented under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), Project title “National Biodiversity Future Center -NBFC”. CUP J33C22001190001. We thank Mark Eaton and Ruud Foppen for their contributions to this work through the EBCC Atlas Steering Committee. Finally, we would like to thank the European Bird Census Council (EBCC), its partner organisations and the many thousands of ornithologists who contributed to the data collection. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023, The Author(s).",

year = "2023",

month = jul,

day = "20",

doi = "10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1",

language = "English",

volume = "14",

journal = "Nature Communications",

issn = "2041-1723",

publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

number = "1",

}

Howard, C, Marjakangas, EL, Morán-Ordóñez, A, Milanesi, P, Abuladze, A, Aghababyan, K, Ajder, V, Arkumarev, V, Balmer, DE, Bauer, HG, Beale, CM, Bino, T, Boyla, KA, Burfield, IJ, Burke, B, Caffrey, B, Chodkiewicz, T, Del Moral, JC, Mazal, VD, Fernández, N, Fornasari, L, Gerlach, B, Godinho, C, Herrando, S, Ieronymidou, C, Johnston, A, Jovicevic, M, Kalyakin, M, Keller, V, Knaus, P, Kotrošan, D, Kuzmenko, T, Leitão, D, Lindström, Å, Maxhuni, Q, Mihelič, T, Mikuska, T, Molina, B, Nagy, K, Noble, D, Øien, IJ, Paquet, JY, Pladevall, C, Portolou, D, Radišić, D, Rajkov, S, Rajković, DZ, Raudonikis, L, Sattler, T, Saveljić, D, Shimmings, P, Sjenicic, J, Šťastný, K, Stoychev, S, Strus, I, Sudfeldt, C, Sultanov, E, Szép, T, Teufelbauer, N, Uzunova, D, van Turnhout, CAM, Velevski, M, Vikstrøm, T, Vintchevski, A, Voltzit, O, Voříšek, P, Wilk, T, Zurell, D, Brotons, L, Lehikoinen, A & Willis, SG 2023, 'Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability', Nature Communications, vol. 14, no. 1, 4304. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1

TY - JOUR

T1 - Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability

AU - Howard, Christine

AU - Marjakangas, Emma Liina

AU - Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra

AU - Milanesi, Pietro

AU - Abuladze, Aleksandre

AU - Aghababyan, Karen

AU - Ajder, Vitalie

AU - Arkumarev, Volen

AU - Balmer, Dawn E.

AU - Bauer, Hans Günther

AU - Beale, Colin M.

AU - Bino, Taulant

AU - Boyla, Kerem Ali

AU - Burfield, Ian J.

AU - Burke, Brian

AU - Caffrey, Brian

AU - Chodkiewicz, Tomasz

AU - Del Moral, Juan Carlos

AU - Mazal, Vlatka Dumbovic

AU - Fernández, Néstor

AU - Fornasari, Lorenzo

AU - Gerlach, Bettina

AU - Godinho, Carlos

AU - Herrando, Sergi

AU - Ieronymidou, Christina

AU - Johnston, Alison

AU - Jovicevic, Mihailo

AU - Kalyakin, Mikhail

AU - Keller, Verena

AU - Knaus, Peter

AU - Kotrošan, Dražen

AU - Kuzmenko, Tatiana

AU - Leitão, Domingos

AU - Lindström, Åke

AU - Maxhuni, Qenan

AU - Mihelič, Tomaž

AU - Mikuska, Tibor

AU - Molina, Blas

AU - Nagy, Károly

AU - Noble, David

AU - Øien, Ingar Jostein

AU - Paquet, Jean Yves

AU - Pladevall, Clara

AU - Portolou, Danae

AU - Radišić, Dimitrije

AU - Rajkov, Saša

AU - Rajković, Draženko Z.

AU - Raudonikis, Liutauras

AU - Sattler, Thomas

AU - Saveljić, Darko

AU - Shimmings, Paul

AU - Sjenicic, Jovica

AU - Šťastný, Karel

AU - Stoychev, Stoycho

AU - Strus, Iurii

AU - Sudfeldt, Christoph

AU - Sultanov, Elchin

AU - Szép, Tibor

AU - Teufelbauer, Norbert

AU - Uzunova, Danka

AU - van Turnhout, Chris A.M.

AU - Velevski, Metodija

AU - Vikstrøm, Thomas

AU - Vintchevski, Alexandre

AU - Voltzit, Olga

AU - Voříšek, Petr

AU - Wilk, Tomasz

AU - Zurell, Damaris

AU - Brotons, Lluís

AU - Lehikoinen, Aleksi

AU - Willis, Stephen G.

N1 - Funding Information: This work was supported in large part by funding to S.G.W. from NERC (NE/T001038/1) and from a DU Seedcorn Grant (054_19-20), which supported S.G.W. and C.H. to work on the project. A.L. and E.M. were funded by the Academy of Finland (project 323527, 329251). In addition, the research has been funded through the 2017–2018 Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA joint call for research proposals, under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme, and with the funding organisations Academy of Finland (Helsinki: 326338) and the National Science Foundation (CLO, ICER-1927646). A.M.O. was supported by the Spanish Government through the Juan de la Cierva fellowship program—IJCI-2016-30349 and partially supported by the project GREENRISK (PID2020-119933RB-C22). L.B. was partially funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 through the projects SPEAR (PCI2022-135056-2) and CEX-2018-000828-S “Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa”. D.Z. acknowledges support from the German Science Foundation (DFG, grant no. ZU 361-1/1). P.M. is funded by the Research project implemented under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), Project title “National Biodiversity Future Center -NBFC”. CUP J33C22001190001. We thank Mark Eaton and Ruud Foppen for their contributions to this work through the EBCC Atlas Steering Committee. Finally, we would like to thank the European Bird Census Council (EBCC), its partner organisations and the many thousands of ornithologists who contributed to the data collection. Funding Information: This work was supported in large part by funding to S.G.W. from NERC (NE/T001038/1) and from a DU Seedcorn Grant (054_19-20), which supported S.G.W. and C.H. to work on the project. A.L. and E.M. were funded by the Academy of Finland (project 323527, 329251). In addition, the research has been funded through the 2017–2018 Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA joint call for research proposals, under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme, and with the funding organisations Academy of Finland (Helsinki: 326338) and the National Science Foundation (CLO, ICER-1927646). A.M.O. was supported by the Spanish Government through the Juan de la Cierva fellowship program—IJCI-2016-30349 and partially supported by the project GREENRISK (PID2020-119933RB-C22). L.B. was partially funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 through the projects SPEAR (PCI2022-135056-2) and CEX-2018-000828-S “Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa”. D.Z. acknowledges support from the German Science Foundation (DFG, grant no. ZU 361-1/1). P.M. is funded by the Research project implemented under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), Project title “National Biodiversity Future Center -NBFC”. CUP J33C22001190001. We thank Mark Eaton and Ruud Foppen for their contributions to this work through the EBCC Atlas Steering Committee. Finally, we would like to thank the European Bird Census Council (EBCC), its partner organisations and the many thousands of ornithologists who contributed to the data collection. Publisher Copyright: © 2023, The Author(s).

PY - 2023/7/20

Y1 - 2023/7/20

N2 - Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species’ ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species’ traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species’ range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species’ ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.

AB - Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species’ ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species’ traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species’ range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species’ ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85165465504&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1

DO - 10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1

M3 - Article

C2 - 37474503

AN - SCOPUS:85165465504

SN - 2041-1723

VL - 14

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

IS - 1

M1 - 4304

ER -

Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability

Abstract

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