Managing successional species: Modelling the dependence of heath fritillary populations on the spatial distribution of woodland management

TY - JOUR

T1 - Managing successional species: Modelling the dependence of heath fritillary populations on the spatial distribution of woodland management

AU - Hodgson, Jenny A.

AU - Moilanen, Atte

AU - Bourn, Nigel A. D.

AU - Bulman, Caroline R.

AU - Thomas, Chris D.

PY - 2009/11

Y1 - 2009/11

N2 - Species that persist on a shifting mosaic of successional habitat offer particular challenges to conservation, to monitoring methods, and to population dynamic modelling. The conservation of the heath fritillary butterfly (Melitaea athalia) in woodland in England, for example, depends on the creation of woodland clearings by coppicing (rotational cutting). We have developed a simulation model to assist in the conservation of such populations, called MANAGE. We have parameterised the model for the M. athalia population in the Blean Woods in Kent, and used it to answer several management questions. We find that: (1) simulations predict that the observed rates of coppicing will not be enough to meet existing conservation (Biodiversity Action Plan) targets, except when the most generous modelling assumptions are made; (2) the greatest uncertainty in the model outcome arises from uncertainty in the colonisation parameters; (3) in the worst case scenario (using the most pessimistic model assumptions), a population would require 2.3% of the Blean Woods to be coppiced each year, which is around double the currently-observed rate; (4) the four management units of the Blean where coppicing is practised are not independent metapopulations- they support each other; and (5) to sustain a population in a smaller landscape would require less coppicing overall, but more as a percentage of the landscape. This modelling approach may prove useful in the development of conservation management plans for other species that inhabit successional habitats. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

AB - Species that persist on a shifting mosaic of successional habitat offer particular challenges to conservation, to monitoring methods, and to population dynamic modelling. The conservation of the heath fritillary butterfly (Melitaea athalia) in woodland in England, for example, depends on the creation of woodland clearings by coppicing (rotational cutting). We have developed a simulation model to assist in the conservation of such populations, called MANAGE. We have parameterised the model for the M. athalia population in the Blean Woods in Kent, and used it to answer several management questions. We find that: (1) simulations predict that the observed rates of coppicing will not be enough to meet existing conservation (Biodiversity Action Plan) targets, except when the most generous modelling assumptions are made; (2) the greatest uncertainty in the model outcome arises from uncertainty in the colonisation parameters; (3) in the worst case scenario (using the most pessimistic model assumptions), a population would require 2.3% of the Blean Woods to be coppiced each year, which is around double the currently-observed rate; (4) the four management units of the Blean where coppicing is practised are not independent metapopulations- they support each other; and (5) to sustain a population in a smaller landscape would require less coppicing overall, but more as a percentage of the landscape. This modelling approach may prove useful in the development of conservation management plans for other species that inhabit successional habitats. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

KW - Melitaea athalia

KW - Metapopulation

KW - Habitat patch dynamics

KW - Succession

KW - Population viability

KW - Management scenarios

KW - BUTTERFLY MELLICTA-ATHALIA

KW - PATCH OCCUPANCY MODELS

KW - METAPOPULATION PERSISTENCE

KW - DYNAMIC LANDSCAPES

KW - EPIPHYTE METAPOPULATION

KW - FOREST MANAGEMENT

KW - HABITAT DYNAMICS

KW - CONSERVATION

KW - VIABILITY

KW - EXTINCTION

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=69249240237&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.biocon.2009.07.005

DO - 10.1016/j.biocon.2009.07.005

M3 - Article

SN - 0006-3207

VL - 142

SP - 2743

EP - 2751

JO - Biological Conservation

JF - Biological Conservation

IS - 11

ER -