TY - JOUR
T1 - Methods to elicit experts’ beliefs over uncertain quantities
T2 - application to a cost effectiveness transition model of negative pressure wound therapy for severe pressure ulceration
AU - O Soares, Marta
AU - Bojke, Laura
AU - Dumville, Jo
AU - Iglesias Urrutia, Cynthia Paola
AU - Cullum, Nicky
AU - Claxton, Karl Philip
PY - 2011/8/30
Y1 - 2011/8/30
N2 - We can use decision models to estimate cost effectiveness, quantify uncertainty regarding the adoption decision and provide estimates of the value of further research. In many cases, the existence of only limited data with which to populate a decision model can mean that a cost-effectiveness analysis either does not proceed or may misrepresent the degree of uncertainty associated with model inputs. An example is the case of negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) used to treat severe pressure ulceration, for which the evidence base is limited and sparse. There is, however, substantial practical experience of using this treatment and its comparators. We can capture this knowledge quantitatively to inform a cost-effectiveness model by eliciting beliefs from experts. This paper describes the design and conduct of an elicitation exercise to generate estimates of multiple uncertain model inputs and validate analytical assumptions for a decision model on the use of NPWT. In designing the exercise, the primary focus was the use of elicitation to inform decision models (multistate models), where representations of uncertain beliefs need to be probabilistically coherent. This paper demonstrates that it is feasible to collect formally elicited evidence to inform decision models.
AB - We can use decision models to estimate cost effectiveness, quantify uncertainty regarding the adoption decision and provide estimates of the value of further research. In many cases, the existence of only limited data with which to populate a decision model can mean that a cost-effectiveness analysis either does not proceed or may misrepresent the degree of uncertainty associated with model inputs. An example is the case of negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) used to treat severe pressure ulceration, for which the evidence base is limited and sparse. There is, however, substantial practical experience of using this treatment and its comparators. We can capture this knowledge quantitatively to inform a cost-effectiveness model by eliciting beliefs from experts. This paper describes the design and conduct of an elicitation exercise to generate estimates of multiple uncertain model inputs and validate analytical assumptions for a decision model on the use of NPWT. In designing the exercise, the primary focus was the use of elicitation to inform decision models (multistate models), where representations of uncertain beliefs need to be probabilistically coherent. This paper demonstrates that it is feasible to collect formally elicited evidence to inform decision models.
KW - Decision Support Techniques
KW - Expert Testimony
KW - Humans
KW - Negative-Pressure Wound Therapy
KW - Nurses
KW - Pressure Ulcer
KW - Severity of Illness Index
KW - Technology Assessment,
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=79960558160&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/sim.4288
DO - 10.1002/sim.4288
M3 - Article
SN - 0277-6715
VL - 30
SP - 2363
EP - 2380
JO - Statistics in Medicine
JF - Statistics in Medicine
IS - 19
ER -