Modeling Contraception and Pregnancy in Malawi: A Thanzi La Onse Mathematical Modeling Study

Tim Colbourn; Eva Janoušková; Ines Li Lin; Joseph Collins; Emilia Connolly; Matt Graham; Britta Jewel; Fannie Kachale; Tara Mangal; Gerald Manthalu; Joseph Mfutso-Bengo; Emmanuel Mnjowe; Sakshi Mohan; Margherita Molaro; Wingston Ng'ambi; Dominic Nkhoma; Paul Revill; Bingling She; Robert Manning Smith; Pakwanja Twea; Asif Tamuri; Andrew Phillips; Timothy B Hallett

doi:10.1111/sifp.12255

Modeling Contraception and Pregnancy in Malawi: A Thanzi La Onse Mathematical Modeling Study

Tim Colbourn, Eva Janoušková, Ines Li Lin, Joseph Collins, Emilia Connolly, Matt Graham, Britta Jewel, Fannie Kachale, Tara Mangal, Gerald Manthalu, Joseph Mfutso-Bengo, Emmanuel Mnjowe, Sakshi Mohan, Margherita Molaro, Wingston Ng'ambi, Dominic Nkhoma, Paul Revill, Bingling She, Robert Manning Smith, Pakwanja TweaAsif Tamuri, Andrew Phillips, Timothy B Hallett

Centre for Health Economics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Malawi has high unmet need for contraception with a costed national plan to increase contraception use. Estimating how such investments might impact future population size in Malawi can help policymakers understand effects and value of policies to increase contraception uptake. We developed a new model of contraception and pregnancy using individual-level data capturing complexities of contraception initiation, switching, discontinuation, and failure by contraception method, accounting for differences by individual characteristics. We modeled contraception scale-up via a population campaign to increase initiation of contraception (Pop) and a postpartum family planning intervention (PPFP). We calibrated the model without new interventions to the UN World Population Prospects 2019 medium variant projection of births for Malawi. Without interventions Malawi's population passes 60 million in 2084; with Pop and PPFP interventions. it peaks below 35 million by 2100. We compare contraception coverage and costs, by method, with and without interventions, from 2023 to 2050. We estimate investments in contraception scale-up correspond to only 0.9 percent of total health expenditure per capita though could result in dramatic reductions of current pressures of very rapid population growth on health services, schools, land, and society, helping Malawi achieve national and global health and development goals.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	585-607
Number of pages	23
Journal	Studies in family planning
Volume	54
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/sifp.12255
Publication status	Published - 21 Dec 2023

Bibliographical note

Keywords

Pregnancy
Female
Humans
Malawi
Contraception
Family Planning Services
Health Services
Postpartum Period
Contraception Behavior

Access to Document

10.1111/sifp.12255Licence: CC BY

Studies in Family Planning - 2023 - Colbourn - Modeling Contraception and Pregnancy in Malawi A Thanzi La Onse
© 2023 The Authors.
Final published version, 1.11 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

Colbourn, T., Janoušková, E., Li Lin, I., Collins, J., Connolly, E., Graham, M., Jewel, B., Kachale, F., Mangal, T., Manthalu, G., Mfutso-Bengo, J., Mnjowe, E., Mohan, S., Molaro, M., Ng'ambi, W., Nkhoma, D., Revill, P., She, B., Manning Smith, R., ... Hallett, T. B. (2023). Modeling Contraception and Pregnancy in Malawi: A Thanzi La Onse Mathematical Modeling Study. Studies in family planning, 54(4), 585-607. https://doi.org/10.1111/sifp.12255

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abstract = "Malawi has high unmet need for contraception with a costed national plan to increase contraception use. Estimating how such investments might impact future population size in Malawi can help policymakers understand effects and value of policies to increase contraception uptake. We developed a new model of contraception and pregnancy using individual-level data capturing complexities of contraception initiation, switching, discontinuation, and failure by contraception method, accounting for differences by individual characteristics. We modeled contraception scale-up via a population campaign to increase initiation of contraception (Pop) and a postpartum family planning intervention (PPFP). We calibrated the model without new interventions to the UN World Population Prospects 2019 medium variant projection of births for Malawi. Without interventions Malawi's population passes 60 million in 2084; with Pop and PPFP interventions. it peaks below 35 million by 2100. We compare contraception coverage and costs, by method, with and without interventions, from 2023 to 2050. We estimate investments in contraception scale-up correspond to only 0.9 percent of total health expenditure per capita though could result in dramatic reductions of current pressures of very rapid population growth on health services, schools, land, and society, helping Malawi achieve national and global health and development goals.",

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Colbourn, T, Janoušková, E, Li Lin, I, Collins, J, Connolly, E, Graham, M, Jewel, B, Kachale, F, Mangal, T, Manthalu, G, Mfutso-Bengo, J, Mnjowe, E, Mohan, S, Molaro, M, Ng'ambi, W, Nkhoma, D, Revill, P, She, B, Manning Smith, R, Twea, P, Tamuri, A, Phillips, A & Hallett, TB 2023, 'Modeling Contraception and Pregnancy in Malawi: A Thanzi La Onse Mathematical Modeling Study', Studies in family planning, vol. 54, no. 4, pp. 585-607. https://doi.org/10.1111/sifp.12255

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T1 - Modeling Contraception and Pregnancy in Malawi

T2 - A Thanzi La Onse Mathematical Modeling Study

AU - Colbourn, Tim

AU - Janoušková, Eva

AU - Li Lin, Ines

AU - Collins, Joseph

AU - Connolly, Emilia

AU - Graham, Matt

AU - Jewel, Britta

AU - Kachale, Fannie

AU - Mangal, Tara

AU - Manthalu, Gerald

AU - Mfutso-Bengo, Joseph

AU - Mnjowe, Emmanuel

AU - Mohan, Sakshi

AU - Molaro, Margherita

AU - Ng'ambi, Wingston

AU - Nkhoma, Dominic

AU - Revill, Paul

AU - She, Bingling

AU - Manning Smith, Robert

AU - Twea, Pakwanja

AU - Tamuri, Asif

AU - Phillips, Andrew

AU - Hallett, Timothy B

PY - 2023/12/21

Y1 - 2023/12/21

N2 - Malawi has high unmet need for contraception with a costed national plan to increase contraception use. Estimating how such investments might impact future population size in Malawi can help policymakers understand effects and value of policies to increase contraception uptake. We developed a new model of contraception and pregnancy using individual-level data capturing complexities of contraception initiation, switching, discontinuation, and failure by contraception method, accounting for differences by individual characteristics. We modeled contraception scale-up via a population campaign to increase initiation of contraception (Pop) and a postpartum family planning intervention (PPFP). We calibrated the model without new interventions to the UN World Population Prospects 2019 medium variant projection of births for Malawi. Without interventions Malawi's population passes 60 million in 2084; with Pop and PPFP interventions. it peaks below 35 million by 2100. We compare contraception coverage and costs, by method, with and without interventions, from 2023 to 2050. We estimate investments in contraception scale-up correspond to only 0.9 percent of total health expenditure per capita though could result in dramatic reductions of current pressures of very rapid population growth on health services, schools, land, and society, helping Malawi achieve national and global health and development goals.

AB - Malawi has high unmet need for contraception with a costed national plan to increase contraception use. Estimating how such investments might impact future population size in Malawi can help policymakers understand effects and value of policies to increase contraception uptake. We developed a new model of contraception and pregnancy using individual-level data capturing complexities of contraception initiation, switching, discontinuation, and failure by contraception method, accounting for differences by individual characteristics. We modeled contraception scale-up via a population campaign to increase initiation of contraception (Pop) and a postpartum family planning intervention (PPFP). We calibrated the model without new interventions to the UN World Population Prospects 2019 medium variant projection of births for Malawi. Without interventions Malawi's population passes 60 million in 2084; with Pop and PPFP interventions. it peaks below 35 million by 2100. We compare contraception coverage and costs, by method, with and without interventions, from 2023 to 2050. We estimate investments in contraception scale-up correspond to only 0.9 percent of total health expenditure per capita though could result in dramatic reductions of current pressures of very rapid population growth on health services, schools, land, and society, helping Malawi achieve national and global health and development goals.

KW - Pregnancy

KW - Female

KW - Humans

KW - Malawi

KW - Contraception

KW - Family Planning Services

KW - Health Services

KW - Postpartum Period

KW - Contraception Behavior

U2 - 10.1111/sifp.12255

DO - 10.1111/sifp.12255

M3 - Article

C2 - 38129327

SN - 0039-3665

VL - 54

SP - 585

EP - 607

JO - Studies in family planning

JF - Studies in family planning

IS - 4

ER -