By the same authors

Modeling sustainability: Population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and human systems

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Modeling sustainability : Population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and human systems. / Motesharrei, Safa; Rivas, Jorge; Kalnay, Eugenia; Asrar, Ghassem R.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Cahalan, Robert F.; Cane, Mark A.; Colwell, Rita R.; Feng, Kuishuang; Franklin, Rachel S.; Hubacek, Klaus; Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando; Miyoshi, Takemasa; Ruth, Matthias; Sagdeev, Roald; Shirmohammadi, Adel; Shukla, Jagadish; Srebric, Jelena; Yakovenko, Victor M.; Zeng, Ning.

In: National Science Review, Vol. 3, No. 4, 11.12.2016, p. 470-494.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Harvard

Motesharrei, S, Rivas, J, Kalnay, E, Asrar, GR, Busalacchi, AJ, Cahalan, RF, Cane, MA, Colwell, RR, Feng, K, Franklin, RS, Hubacek, K, Miralles-Wilhelm, F, Miyoshi, T, Ruth, M, Sagdeev, R, Shirmohammadi, A, Shukla, J, Srebric, J, Yakovenko, VM & Zeng, N 2016, 'Modeling sustainability: Population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and human systems', National Science Review, vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 470-494. https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nww081

APA

Motesharrei, S., Rivas, J., Kalnay, E., Asrar, G. R., Busalacchi, A. J., Cahalan, R. F., Cane, M. A., Colwell, R. R., Feng, K., Franklin, R. S., Hubacek, K., Miralles-Wilhelm, F., Miyoshi, T., Ruth, M., Sagdeev, R., Shirmohammadi, A., Shukla, J., Srebric, J., Yakovenko, V. M., & Zeng, N. (2016). Modeling sustainability: Population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and human systems. National Science Review, 3(4), 470-494. https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nww081

Vancouver

Motesharrei S, Rivas J, Kalnay E, Asrar GR, Busalacchi AJ, Cahalan RF et al. Modeling sustainability: Population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and human systems. National Science Review. 2016 Dec 11;3(4):470-494. https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nww081

Author

Motesharrei, Safa ; Rivas, Jorge ; Kalnay, Eugenia ; Asrar, Ghassem R. ; Busalacchi, Antonio J. ; Cahalan, Robert F. ; Cane, Mark A. ; Colwell, Rita R. ; Feng, Kuishuang ; Franklin, Rachel S. ; Hubacek, Klaus ; Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando ; Miyoshi, Takemasa ; Ruth, Matthias ; Sagdeev, Roald ; Shirmohammadi, Adel ; Shukla, Jagadish ; Srebric, Jelena ; Yakovenko, Victor M. ; Zeng, Ning. / Modeling sustainability : Population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and human systems. In: National Science Review. 2016 ; Vol. 3, No. 4. pp. 470-494.

Bibtex - Download

@article{b61654cea7444f38a190fc19afe97045,
title = "Modeling sustainability: Population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and human systems",
abstract = "Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. We argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth SystemModels must be coupled with Human SystemModels through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as United Nations population projections.This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth-Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models.The importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth-Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.",
keywords = "Bidirectional couplings and feedbacks, Data assimilation, Earth and human systemmodels, Inequality, Migration, Population, Sustainability",
author = "Safa Motesharrei and Jorge Rivas and Eugenia Kalnay and Asrar, {Ghassem R.} and Busalacchi, {Antonio J.} and Cahalan, {Robert F.} and Cane, {Mark A.} and Colwell, {Rita R.} and Kuishuang Feng and Franklin, {Rachel S.} and Klaus Hubacek and Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm and Takemasa Miyoshi and Matthias Ruth and Roald Sagdeev and Adel Shirmohammadi and Jagadish Shukla and Jelena Srebric and Yakovenko, {Victor M.} and Ning Zeng",
note = "{\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2016.",
year = "2016",
month = dec,
day = "11",
doi = "10.1093/nsr/nww081",
language = "English",
volume = "3",
pages = "470--494",
journal = "National Science Review",
issn = "2095-5138",
publisher = "Oxford University Press",
number = "4",

}

RIS (suitable for import to EndNote) - Download

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modeling sustainability

T2 - Population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and human systems

AU - Motesharrei, Safa

AU - Rivas, Jorge

AU - Kalnay, Eugenia

AU - Asrar, Ghassem R.

AU - Busalacchi, Antonio J.

AU - Cahalan, Robert F.

AU - Cane, Mark A.

AU - Colwell, Rita R.

AU - Feng, Kuishuang

AU - Franklin, Rachel S.

AU - Hubacek, Klaus

AU - Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando

AU - Miyoshi, Takemasa

AU - Ruth, Matthias

AU - Sagdeev, Roald

AU - Shirmohammadi, Adel

AU - Shukla, Jagadish

AU - Srebric, Jelena

AU - Yakovenko, Victor M.

AU - Zeng, Ning

N1 - © The Author(s) 2016.

PY - 2016/12/11

Y1 - 2016/12/11

N2 - Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. We argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth SystemModels must be coupled with Human SystemModels through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as United Nations population projections.This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth-Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models.The importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth-Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.

AB - Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. We argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth SystemModels must be coupled with Human SystemModels through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as United Nations population projections.This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth-Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models.The importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth-Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.

KW - Bidirectional couplings and feedbacks

KW - Data assimilation

KW - Earth and human systemmodels

KW - Inequality

KW - Migration

KW - Population

KW - Sustainability

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85014110369&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1093/nsr/nww081

DO - 10.1093/nsr/nww081

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85014110369

VL - 3

SP - 470

EP - 494

JO - National Science Review

JF - National Science Review

SN - 2095-5138

IS - 4

ER -