Modeling sustainability: Population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and human systems

Safa Motesharrei; Jorge Rivas; Eugenia Kalnay; Ghassem R. Asrar; Antonio J. Busalacchi; Robert F. Cahalan; Mark A. Cane; Rita R. Colwell; Kuishuang Feng; Rachel S. Franklin; Klaus Hubacek; Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm; Takemasa Miyoshi; Matthias Ruth; Roald Sagdeev; Adel Shirmohammadi; Jagadish Shukla; Jelena Srebric; Victor M. Yakovenko; Ning Zeng

doi:10.1093/nsr/nww081

Modeling sustainability: Population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and human systems

Safa Motesharrei^*, Jorge Rivas, Eugenia Kalnay, Ghassem R. Asrar, Antonio J. Busalacchi, Robert F. Cahalan, Mark A. Cane, Rita R. Colwell, Kuishuang Feng, Rachel S. Franklin, Klaus Hubacek, Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm, Takemasa Miyoshi, Matthias Ruth, Roald Sagdeev, Adel Shirmohammadi, Jagadish Shukla, Jelena Srebric, Victor M. Yakovenko, Ning Zeng

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. We argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth SystemModels must be coupled with Human SystemModels through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as United Nations population projections.This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth-Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models.The importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth-Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	470-494
Number of pages	25
Journal	National Science Review
Volume	3
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nww081
Publication status	Published - 11 Dec 2016

Bibliographical note

Keywords

Bidirectional couplings and feedbacks
Data assimilation
Earth and human systemmodels
Inequality
Migration
Population
Sustainability

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10.1093/nsr/nww081

Modeling sustainability: population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and Human Systems
© The Author(s) 2016.
Final published version, 1.38 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

Motesharrei, S., Rivas, J., Kalnay, E., Asrar, G. R., Busalacchi, A. J., Cahalan, R. F., Cane, M. A., Colwell, R. R., Feng, K., Franklin, R. S., Hubacek, K., Miralles-Wilhelm, F., Miyoshi, T., Ruth, M., Sagdeev, R., Shirmohammadi, A., Shukla, J., Srebric, J., Yakovenko, V. M., & Zeng, N. (2016). Modeling sustainability: Population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and human systems. National Science Review, 3(4), 470-494. https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nww081

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title = "Modeling sustainability: Population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and human systems",

abstract = "Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. We argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth SystemModels must be coupled with Human SystemModels through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as United Nations population projections.This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth-Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models.The importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth-Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.",

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author = "Safa Motesharrei and Jorge Rivas and Eugenia Kalnay and Asrar, {Ghassem R.} and Busalacchi, {Antonio J.} and Cahalan, {Robert F.} and Cane, {Mark A.} and Colwell, {Rita R.} and Kuishuang Feng and Franklin, {Rachel S.} and Klaus Hubacek and Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm and Takemasa Miyoshi and Matthias Ruth and Roald Sagdeev and Adel Shirmohammadi and Jagadish Shukla and Jelena Srebric and Yakovenko, {Victor M.} and Ning Zeng",

note = "{\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2016.",

year = "2016",

month = dec,

day = "11",

doi = "10.1093/nsr/nww081",

language = "English",

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Motesharrei, S, Rivas, J, Kalnay, E, Asrar, GR, Busalacchi, AJ, Cahalan, RF, Cane, MA, Colwell, RR, Feng, K, Franklin, RS, Hubacek, K, Miralles-Wilhelm, F, Miyoshi, T, Ruth, M, Sagdeev, R, Shirmohammadi, A, Shukla, J, Srebric, J, Yakovenko, VM & Zeng, N 2016, 'Modeling sustainability: Population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and human systems', National Science Review, vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 470-494. https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nww081

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T1 - Modeling sustainability

T2 - Population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and human systems

AU - Motesharrei, Safa

AU - Rivas, Jorge

AU - Kalnay, Eugenia

AU - Asrar, Ghassem R.

AU - Busalacchi, Antonio J.

AU - Cahalan, Robert F.

AU - Cane, Mark A.

AU - Colwell, Rita R.

AU - Feng, Kuishuang

AU - Franklin, Rachel S.

AU - Hubacek, Klaus

AU - Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando

AU - Miyoshi, Takemasa

AU - Ruth, Matthias

AU - Sagdeev, Roald

AU - Shirmohammadi, Adel

AU - Shukla, Jagadish

AU - Srebric, Jelena

AU - Yakovenko, Victor M.

AU - Zeng, Ning

PY - 2016/12/11

Y1 - 2016/12/11

N2 - Over the last two centuries, the impact of the Human System has grown dramatically, becoming strongly dominant within the Earth System in many different ways. Consumption, inequality, and population have increased extremely fast, especially since about 1950, threatening to overwhelm the many critical functions and ecosystems of the Earth System. Changes in the Earth System, in turn, have important feedback effects on the Human System, with costly and potentially serious consequences. However, current models do not incorporate these critical feedbacks. We argue that in order to understand the dynamics of either system, Earth SystemModels must be coupled with Human SystemModels through bidirectional couplings representing the positive, negative, and delayed feedbacks that exist in the real systems. In particular, key Human System variables, such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration, are not coupled with the Earth System but are instead driven by exogenous estimates, such as United Nations population projections.This makes current models likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth-Human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes, and thus requiring different policy interventions from current models.The importance and imminence of sustainability challenges, the dominant role of the Human System in the Earth System, and the essential roles the Earth System plays for the Human System, all call for collaboration of natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers in multidisciplinary research and modeling to develop coupled Earth-Human system models for devising effective science-based policies and measures to benefit current and future generations.

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KW - Data assimilation

KW - Earth and human systemmodels

KW - Inequality

KW - Migration

KW - Population

KW - Sustainability

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JO - National Science Review

JF - National Science Review

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ER -

Modeling sustainability: Population, inequality, consumption, and bidirectional coupling of the Earth and human systems

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

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