Net Reductions or Spatiotemporal Displacement of Intentional Wildfires in Response to Arrests? Evidence from Spain

Jeffrey P Prestemon, David Butry, Dr Chas-Amil, Julia M. Touza

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Research to date has not examined how the impacts of arrests manifest across space and time in environmental crimes. We evaluate whether arrests reduce or merely spatiotemporally displace intentional illegal outdoor firesetting. Using municipality-level daily wildfire count data from Galicia, Spain, from 1999 to 2014, we develop daily spatiotemporal ignition count models of agricultural, non-agricultural and total intentional illegal wildfires as functions of spatiotemporally lagged arrests, the election cycle, seasonal and day indicators, meteorological factors and socioeconomic variables. We find evidence that arrests reduce future intentional illegal fires across space in subsequent time periods.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)397-411
Number of pages15
JournalInternational Journal of Wildland Fire
Issue number6
Early online date31 May 2019
Publication statusPublished - 2019

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 Journal compilation © IAWF 2019 Open Access.


  • arson
  • autoregression
  • elections
  • negative binomial
  • panel data
  • spatiotemporal
  • zero inflation

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