Net Reductions or Spatiotemporal Displacement of Intentional Wildfires in Response to Arrests? Evidence from Spain

Jeffrey P Prestemon; David Butry; Dr Chas-Amil; Julia M. Touza

doi:10.1071/WF18234

Net Reductions or Spatiotemporal Displacement of Intentional Wildfires in Response to Arrests? Evidence from Spain

Jeffrey P Prestemon, David Butry, Dr Chas-Amil, Julia M. Touza

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Research to date has not examined how the impacts of arrests manifest across space and time in environmental crimes. We evaluate whether arrests reduce or merely spatiotemporally displace intentional illegal outdoor firesetting. Using municipality-level daily wildfire count data from Galicia, Spain, from 1999 to 2014, we develop daily spatiotemporal ignition count models of agricultural, non-agricultural and total intentional illegal wildfires as functions of spatiotemporally lagged arrests, the election cycle, seasonal and day indicators, meteorological factors and socioeconomic variables. We find evidence that arrests reduce future intentional illegal fires across space in subsequent time periods.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	397-411
Number of pages	15
Journal	International Journal of Wildland Fire
Volume	28
Issue number	6
Early online date	31 May 2019
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18234
Publication status	Published - 2019

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 Journal compilation © IAWF 2019 Open Access.

Keywords

arson
autoregression
elections
negative binomial
panel data
spatiotemporal
zero inflation

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abstract = "Research to date has not examined how the impacts of arrests manifest across space and time in environmental crimes. We evaluate whether arrests reduce or merely spatiotemporally displace intentional illegal outdoor firesetting. Using municipality-level daily wildfire count data from Galicia, Spain, from 1999 to 2014, we develop daily spatiotemporal ignition count models of agricultural, non-agricultural and total intentional illegal wildfires as functions of spatiotemporally lagged arrests, the election cycle, seasonal and day indicators, meteorological factors and socioeconomic variables. We find evidence that arrests reduce future intentional illegal fires across space in subsequent time periods.",

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Net Reductions or Spatiotemporal Displacement of Intentional Wildfires in Response to Arrests? Evidence from Spain

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

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