Oil Prices in the Real Economy

Haicheng Shu, Peter Spencer

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


This paper presents a macro-finance model of the US economy and the spot and futures markets for oil. The performance of the model is greatly enhanced by using the Kalman filter to model latent variables representing the inflation asymptote, the real price of oil and the slope of the futures curve. We find that these are dominated by innovations in observed futures prices, reflecting the importance of market expectations. Using the Kalman filter to capture inflationary shocks helps solve the notorious price puzzle, the tendency for increases in interest rates to anticipate such developments and apparently cause inflation. Futures prices also depend upon risk premiums, which we find are dominated by the latent variable representing the real oil price rather than macro variables like inflation and interest rates.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)878-897
JournalJournal of Applied Econometrics
Issue number6
Early online date21 May 2023
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 21 May 2023

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© 2023 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This is an author-produced version of the published paper. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher’s self-archiving policy. Further copying may not be permitted; contact the publisher for details.


  • affine term structure model
  • macro finance model
  • oil futures contracts
  • oil price
  • spanned macro factor risk

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