Ozone pollution will compromise efforts to increase global wheat production

Gina Mills; Katrina Sharps; D Simpson; Hakan Pleijel; Malin Broberg; null uddling; Fernando Jaramillo; William J Davies; null Dentener; Maurits Van den Berg; Madhoolika Agrawal; S.B. Agrawal; Elizabeth A.  Ainsworth; Patrick Bueker; Lisa Dianne Emberson; Zhaozhong Feng; null Harmens; null Hayes; Kazuhiko Kobayashi; Elena Paoletti; null Van Dingenen

doi:10.1111/gcb.14157

Ozone pollution will compromise efforts to increase global wheat production

Gina Mills, Katrina Sharps, D Simpson, Hakan Pleijel, Malin Broberg, uddling, Fernando Jaramillo, William J Davies, Dentener, Maurits Van den Berg, Madhoolika Agrawal, S.B. Agrawal, Elizabeth A. Ainsworth, Patrick Bueker, Lisa Dianne Emberson, Zhaozhong Feng, Harmens, Hayes, Kazuhiko Kobayashi, Elena PaolettiVan Dingenen

Stockholm Environment Institute at York

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Introduction of high-performing crop cultivars and crop/soil water management practices that increase the stomatal uptake of carbon dioxide and photosynthesis will be instrumental in realizing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of achieving food security. To date, however, global assessments of how to increase crop yield have failed to consider the negative effects of tropospheric ozone, a gaseous pollutant that enters the leaf stomatal pores of plants along with carbon dioxide, and is increasing in concentration globally, particularly in rapidly developing countries. Earlier studies have simply estimated that the largest effects are in the areas with the highest ozone concentrations. Using a modelling method that accounts for the effects of soil moisture deficit and meteorological factors on the stomatal uptake of ozone, we show for the first time that ozone impacts on wheat yield are particularly large in humid rain-fed and irrigated areas of major wheat-producing countries (e.g. United States, France, India, China and Russia). Averaged over 2010–2012, we estimate that ozone reduces wheat yields by a mean 9.9% in the northern hemisphere and 6.2% in the southern hemisphere, corresponding to some 85 Tg (million tonnes) of lost grain. Total production losses in developing countries receiving Official Development Assistance are 50% higher than those in developed countries, potentially reducing the possibility of achieving UN SDG2. Crucially, our analysis shows that ozone could reduce the potential yield benefits of increasing irrigation usage in response to climate change because added irrigation increases the uptake and subsequent negative effects of the pollutant. We show that mitigation of air pollution in a changing climate could play a vital role in achieving the above-mentioned UN SDG, while also contributing to other SDGs related to human health and well-being, ecosystems and climate change.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	3560-3574
Number of pages	15
Journal	Global Change Biology
Volume	24
Issue number	8
Early online date	31 Mar 2018
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14157
Publication status	Published - Aug 2018

Bibliographical note

This is an author-produced version of the published paper. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher’s self-archiving policy. Further copying may not be permitted; contact the publisher for details

Keywords

climate change
developed countries
developing countries
food security
irrigation
ozone
stomatal uptake
wheat
yield

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10.1111/gcb.14157

Mills_et_al-2018-Global_Change_Biology
This is an author-produced version of the published paper. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher’s self-archiving policy. Further copying may not be permitted; contact the publisher for details
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Cite this

Mills, G., Sharps, K., Simpson, D., Pleijel, H., Broberg, M., uddling, Jaramillo, F., Davies, W. J., Dentener, Van den Berg, M., Agrawal, M., Agrawal, S. B., Ainsworth, E. A., Bueker, P., Emberson, L. D., Feng, Z., Harmens, Hayes, Kobayashi, K., ... Van Dingenen (2018). Ozone pollution will compromise efforts to increase global wheat production. Global Change Biology, 24(8), 3560-3574. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14157

@article{af2a7c736b3c48caae354b9ca90581c6,

title = "Ozone pollution will compromise efforts to increase global wheat production",

abstract = "Introduction of high-performing crop cultivars and crop/soil water management practices that increase the stomatal uptake of carbon dioxide and photosynthesis will be instrumental in realizing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of achieving food security. To date, however, global assessments of how to increase crop yield have failed to consider the negative effects of tropospheric ozone, a gaseous pollutant that enters the leaf stomatal pores of plants along with carbon dioxide, and is increasing in concentration globally, particularly in rapidly developing countries. Earlier studies have simply estimated that the largest effects are in the areas with the highest ozone concentrations. Using a modelling method that accounts for the effects of soil moisture deficit and meteorological factors on the stomatal uptake of ozone, we show for the first time that ozone impacts on wheat yield are particularly large in humid rain-fed and irrigated areas of major wheat-producing countries (e.g. United States, France, India, China and Russia). Averaged over 2010–2012, we estimate that ozone reduces wheat yields by a mean 9.9% in the northern hemisphere and 6.2% in the southern hemisphere, corresponding to some 85 Tg (million tonnes) of lost grain. Total production losses in developing countries receiving Official Development Assistance are 50% higher than those in developed countries, potentially reducing the possibility of achieving UN SDG2. Crucially, our analysis shows that ozone could reduce the potential yield benefits of increasing irrigation usage in response to climate change because added irrigation increases the uptake and subsequent negative effects of the pollutant. We show that mitigation of air pollution in a changing climate could play a vital role in achieving the above-mentioned UN SDG, while also contributing to other SDGs related to human health and well-being, ecosystems and climate change.",

keywords = "climate change, developed countries, developing countries, food security, irrigation, ozone, stomatal uptake, wheat, yield",

author = "Gina Mills and Katrina Sharps and D Simpson and Hakan Pleijel and Malin Broberg and uddling and Fernando Jaramillo and Davies, {William J} and Dentener and {Van den Berg}, Maurits and Madhoolika Agrawal and S.B. Agrawal and Ainsworth, {Elizabeth A.} and Patrick Bueker and Emberson, {Lisa Dianne} and Zhaozhong Feng and Harmens and Hayes and Kazuhiko Kobayashi and Elena Paoletti and {Van Dingenen}",

note = "This is an author-produced version of the published paper. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher{\textquoteright}s self-archiving policy. Further copying may not be permitted; contact the publisher for details",

year = "2018",

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doi = "10.1111/gcb.14157",

language = "English",

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Mills, G, Sharps, K, Simpson, D, Pleijel, H, Broberg, M, uddling, Jaramillo, F, Davies, WJ, Dentener, Van den Berg, M, Agrawal, M, Agrawal, SB, Ainsworth, EA, Bueker, P , Emberson, LD, Feng, Z, Harmens, Hayes, Kobayashi, K, Paoletti, E & Van Dingenen 2018, 'Ozone pollution will compromise efforts to increase global wheat production', Global Change Biology, vol. 24, no. 8, pp. 3560-3574. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14157

TY - JOUR

T1 - Ozone pollution will compromise efforts to increase global wheat production

AU - Mills, Gina

AU - Sharps, Katrina

AU - Simpson, D

AU - Pleijel, Hakan

AU - Broberg, Malin

AU - uddling, null

AU - Jaramillo, Fernando

AU - Davies, William J

AU - Dentener, null

AU - Van den Berg, Maurits

AU - Agrawal, Madhoolika

AU - Agrawal, S.B.

AU - Ainsworth, Elizabeth A.

AU - Bueker, Patrick

AU - Emberson, Lisa Dianne

AU - Feng, Zhaozhong

AU - Harmens, null

AU - Hayes, null

AU - Kobayashi, Kazuhiko

AU - Paoletti, Elena

AU - Van Dingenen, null

N1 - This is an author-produced version of the published paper. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher’s self-archiving policy. Further copying may not be permitted; contact the publisher for details

PY - 2018/8

Y1 - 2018/8

N2 - Introduction of high-performing crop cultivars and crop/soil water management practices that increase the stomatal uptake of carbon dioxide and photosynthesis will be instrumental in realizing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of achieving food security. To date, however, global assessments of how to increase crop yield have failed to consider the negative effects of tropospheric ozone, a gaseous pollutant that enters the leaf stomatal pores of plants along with carbon dioxide, and is increasing in concentration globally, particularly in rapidly developing countries. Earlier studies have simply estimated that the largest effects are in the areas with the highest ozone concentrations. Using a modelling method that accounts for the effects of soil moisture deficit and meteorological factors on the stomatal uptake of ozone, we show for the first time that ozone impacts on wheat yield are particularly large in humid rain-fed and irrigated areas of major wheat-producing countries (e.g. United States, France, India, China and Russia). Averaged over 2010–2012, we estimate that ozone reduces wheat yields by a mean 9.9% in the northern hemisphere and 6.2% in the southern hemisphere, corresponding to some 85 Tg (million tonnes) of lost grain. Total production losses in developing countries receiving Official Development Assistance are 50% higher than those in developed countries, potentially reducing the possibility of achieving UN SDG2. Crucially, our analysis shows that ozone could reduce the potential yield benefits of increasing irrigation usage in response to climate change because added irrigation increases the uptake and subsequent negative effects of the pollutant. We show that mitigation of air pollution in a changing climate could play a vital role in achieving the above-mentioned UN SDG, while also contributing to other SDGs related to human health and well-being, ecosystems and climate change.

AB - Introduction of high-performing crop cultivars and crop/soil water management practices that increase the stomatal uptake of carbon dioxide and photosynthesis will be instrumental in realizing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of achieving food security. To date, however, global assessments of how to increase crop yield have failed to consider the negative effects of tropospheric ozone, a gaseous pollutant that enters the leaf stomatal pores of plants along with carbon dioxide, and is increasing in concentration globally, particularly in rapidly developing countries. Earlier studies have simply estimated that the largest effects are in the areas with the highest ozone concentrations. Using a modelling method that accounts for the effects of soil moisture deficit and meteorological factors on the stomatal uptake of ozone, we show for the first time that ozone impacts on wheat yield are particularly large in humid rain-fed and irrigated areas of major wheat-producing countries (e.g. United States, France, India, China and Russia). Averaged over 2010–2012, we estimate that ozone reduces wheat yields by a mean 9.9% in the northern hemisphere and 6.2% in the southern hemisphere, corresponding to some 85 Tg (million tonnes) of lost grain. Total production losses in developing countries receiving Official Development Assistance are 50% higher than those in developed countries, potentially reducing the possibility of achieving UN SDG2. Crucially, our analysis shows that ozone could reduce the potential yield benefits of increasing irrigation usage in response to climate change because added irrigation increases the uptake and subsequent negative effects of the pollutant. We show that mitigation of air pollution in a changing climate could play a vital role in achieving the above-mentioned UN SDG, while also contributing to other SDGs related to human health and well-being, ecosystems and climate change.

KW - climate change

KW - developed countries

KW - developing countries

KW - food security

KW - irrigation

KW - ozone

KW - stomatal uptake

KW - wheat

KW - yield

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U2 - 10.1111/gcb.14157

DO - 10.1111/gcb.14157

M3 - Article

SN - 1354-1013

VL - 24

SP - 3560

EP - 3574

JO - Global Change Biology

JF - Global Change Biology

IS - 8

ER -

Ozone pollution will compromise efforts to increase global wheat production

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

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Lisa Dianne Emberson

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