Predicting prolonged bovine tuberculosis breakdowns in Great Britain as an aid to control

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predicting prolonged bovine tuberculosis breakdowns in Great Britain as an aid to control

AU - Karolemeas, K

AU - McKinley, T J

AU - Clifton-Hadley, R S

AU - Goodchild, A V

AU - Mitchell, A

AU - Johnston, W T

AU - Conlan, A J K

AU - Donnelly, C A

AU - Wood, J L N

N1 - Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

PY - 2010/12/1

Y1 - 2010/12/1

N2 - Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is an important notifiable disease in cattle in Great Britain (GB), and is subject to statutory control measures. Despite this, disease incidence has increased since the mid-1980s, and around 30% of herd breakdowns continue for more than 240 days. This is twice the shortest possible time for confirmed breakdowns to test clear from infection (≈120 days), and four times the shortest possible time for unconfirmed breakdowns (≈60 days). These "prolonged" breakdowns consume substantial resources and may act as an ongoing source of infection. It is not clear why some breakdowns become prolonged. Existing detailed case-control data have been re-analysed to determine risk factors for breakdowns lasting longer than 240 days, the strongest of which was the confirmation status of the breakdown: OR 12.6 (95%CI: 6.7-25.4). A further model restricted to data available early on in a breakdown for all breakdowns nationally, can predict 82-84% of prolonged breakdowns with a positive predictive value of 44-49% when validated using existing national datasets over a 4-year period. Identification of prolonged breakdowns at an earlier stage could help to target bTB controls in GB.

AB - Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is an important notifiable disease in cattle in Great Britain (GB), and is subject to statutory control measures. Despite this, disease incidence has increased since the mid-1980s, and around 30% of herd breakdowns continue for more than 240 days. This is twice the shortest possible time for confirmed breakdowns to test clear from infection (≈120 days), and four times the shortest possible time for unconfirmed breakdowns (≈60 days). These "prolonged" breakdowns consume substantial resources and may act as an ongoing source of infection. It is not clear why some breakdowns become prolonged. Existing detailed case-control data have been re-analysed to determine risk factors for breakdowns lasting longer than 240 days, the strongest of which was the confirmation status of the breakdown: OR 12.6 (95%CI: 6.7-25.4). A further model restricted to data available early on in a breakdown for all breakdowns nationally, can predict 82-84% of prolonged breakdowns with a positive predictive value of 44-49% when validated using existing national datasets over a 4-year period. Identification of prolonged breakdowns at an earlier stage could help to target bTB controls in GB.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=78650173147&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.09.007

DO - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.09.007

M3 - Article

C2 - 20965599

VL - 97

SP - 183

EP - 190

JO - Preventive veterinary medicine

JF - Preventive veterinary medicine

IS - 3-4

ER -