Projected future climatic forcing on the global distribution of vegetation types

TY - JOUR

T1 - Projected future climatic forcing on the global distribution of vegetation types

AU - Allen, Bethany J

AU - Hill, Daniel J.

AU - Burke, Ariane

AU - Clark, Michael

AU - Marchant, Robert

AU - Stringer, Lindsay Carman

AU - Williams, David R

AU - Lyon, Christopher John

N1 - Funding Information: B.J.A.\u2019s contributions were funded by an ETH + grant (BECCY). C.L. is grateful for funding from Leverhulme Trust (grant no. RC-2018-021), through the Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity, University of York. This research is an output of the Refugia of Futures Past project supported by the White Rose Collaboration Fund. Funding Information: B.J.A.'s contributions were funded by an ETH + grant (BECCY). C.L. is grateful for funding from Leverhulme Trust (grant no. RC-2018-021), through the Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity, University of York. This research is an output of the Refugia of Futures Past project supported by the White Rose Collaboration Fund. Acknowledgements Publisher Copyright: © 2024 The Authors.

PY - 2024/5/27

Y1 - 2024/5/27

N2 - Most emissions scenarios suggest temperature and precipitation regimes will change dramatically across the globe over the next 500 years. These changes will have large impacts on the biosphere, with species forced to migrate to follow their preferred environmental conditions, therefore moving and fragmenting ecosystems. However, most projections of the impacts of climate change only reach 2100, limiting our understanding of the temporal scope of climate impacts, and potentially impeding suitable adaptive action. To address this data gap, we model future climate change every 20 years from 2000 to 2500 CE, under different CO2 emissions scenarios, using a general circulation model. We then apply a biome model to these modelled climate futures, to investigate shifts in climatic forcing on vegetation worldwide, the feasibility of the migration required to enact these modelled vegetation changes, and potential overlap with human land use based on modern-day anthromes. Under a business-as-usual scenario, up to 40% of terrestrial area is expected to be suited to a different biome by 2500. Cold-adapted biomes, particularly boreal forest and dry tundra, are predicted to experience the greatest losses of suitable area. Without mitigation, these changes could have severe consequences both for global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere’.

AB - Most emissions scenarios suggest temperature and precipitation regimes will change dramatically across the globe over the next 500 years. These changes will have large impacts on the biosphere, with species forced to migrate to follow their preferred environmental conditions, therefore moving and fragmenting ecosystems. However, most projections of the impacts of climate change only reach 2100, limiting our understanding of the temporal scope of climate impacts, and potentially impeding suitable adaptive action. To address this data gap, we model future climate change every 20 years from 2000 to 2500 CE, under different CO2 emissions scenarios, using a general circulation model. We then apply a biome model to these modelled climate futures, to investigate shifts in climatic forcing on vegetation worldwide, the feasibility of the migration required to enact these modelled vegetation changes, and potential overlap with human land use based on modern-day anthromes. Under a business-as-usual scenario, up to 40% of terrestrial area is expected to be suited to a different biome by 2500. Cold-adapted biomes, particularly boreal forest and dry tundra, are predicted to experience the greatest losses of suitable area. Without mitigation, these changes could have severe consequences both for global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere’.

KW - anthropogenic

KW - biodiversity

KW - biome

KW - biosphere

KW - climate change

KW - global warming

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85190101833&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1098/rstb.2023.0011

DO - 10.1098/rstb.2023.0011

M3 - Article

C2 - 38583474

AN - SCOPUS:85190101833

SN - 1471-2970

VL - 379

JO - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

JF - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

IS - 1902

M1 - 20230011

ER -