Quantifying risks avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels

Rachel Warren; Oliver Andrews; Sally Brown; Felipe J. Colón-González; Nicole Forstenhäusler; David E.H.J. Gernaat; P. Goodwin; Ian Harris; Yi He; Chris Hope; Desmond Manful; Timothy J. Osborn; Jeff Price; Detlef Van Vuuren; Rebecca Mary Wright

doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03277-9

Quantifying risks avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels

Rachel Warren^*, Oliver Andrews, Sally Brown, Felipe J. Colón-González, Nicole Forstenhäusler, David E.H.J. Gernaat, P. Goodwin, Ian Harris, Yi He, Chris Hope, Desmond Manful, Timothy J. Osborn, Jeff Price, Detlef Van Vuuren, Rebecca Mary Wright

^*Corresponding author for this work

Environment and Geography

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global warming to ‘well below 2 °C’ and to ‘pursue efforts’ to limit it to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify global and regional risk-related metrics associated with these levels of warming that capture climate change–related changes in exposure to water scarcity and heat stress, vector-borne disease, coastal and fluvial flooding and projected impacts on agriculture and the economy, allowing for uncertainties in regional climate projection. Risk-related metrics associated with 2 °C warming, depending on sector, are reduced by 10–44% globally if warming is further reduced to 1.5 °C. Comparing with a baseline in which warming of 3.66 °C occurs by 2100, constraining warming to 1.5 °C reduces these risk indicators globally by 32–85%, and constraining warming to 2 °C reduces them by 26–74%. In percentage terms, avoided risk is highest for fluvial flooding, drought, and heat stress, but in absolute terms risk reduction is greatest for drought. Although water stress decreases in some regions, it is often accompanied by additional exposure to flooding. The magnitude of the percentage of damage avoided is similar to that calculated for avoided global economic risk associated with these same climate change scenarios. We also identify West Africa, India and North America as hotspots of climate change risk in the future.

Original language	English
Article number	39
Number of pages	16
Journal	Climatic change
Volume	172
Issue number	3-4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03277-9
Publication status	Published - 29 Jun 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This research leading to these results received funding from the UK Government, Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, as part of the Implications of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C project. OA, YH, JP and RW were also funded by joint UK NERC and UK Government Department of BEIS grant NE/P01495X/1.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).

Keywords

Avoided impacts
Climate change
Economic damages
Fluvial flooding
Hotspots
Mitigation
Paris Agreement

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10.1007/s10584-021-03277-9Licence: CC BY

Cite this

Warren, R., Andrews, O., Brown, S., Colón-González, F. J., Forstenhäusler, N., Gernaat, D. E. H. J., Goodwin, P., Harris, I., He, Y., Hope, C., Manful, D., Osborn, T. J., Price, J., Van Vuuren, D., & Wright, R. M. (2022). Quantifying risks avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Climatic change, 172(3-4), Article 39. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03277-9

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title = "Quantifying risks avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels",

abstract = "The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global warming to {\textquoteleft}well below 2 °C{\textquoteright} and to {\textquoteleft}pursue efforts{\textquoteright} to limit it to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify global and regional risk-related metrics associated with these levels of warming that capture climate change–related changes in exposure to water scarcity and heat stress, vector-borne disease, coastal and fluvial flooding and projected impacts on agriculture and the economy, allowing for uncertainties in regional climate projection. Risk-related metrics associated with 2 °C warming, depending on sector, are reduced by 10–44% globally if warming is further reduced to 1.5 °C. Comparing with a baseline in which warming of 3.66 °C occurs by 2100, constraining warming to 1.5 °C reduces these risk indicators globally by 32–85%, and constraining warming to 2 °C reduces them by 26–74%. In percentage terms, avoided risk is highest for fluvial flooding, drought, and heat stress, but in absolute terms risk reduction is greatest for drought. Although water stress decreases in some regions, it is often accompanied by additional exposure to flooding. The magnitude of the percentage of damage avoided is similar to that calculated for avoided global economic risk associated with these same climate change scenarios. We also identify West Africa, India and North America as hotspots of climate change risk in the future.",

keywords = "Avoided impacts, Climate change, Economic damages, Fluvial flooding, Hotspots, Mitigation, Paris Agreement",

author = "Rachel Warren and Oliver Andrews and Sally Brown and Col{\'o}n-Gonz{\'a}lez, {Felipe J.} and Nicole Forstenh{\"a}usler and Gernaat, {David E.H.J.} and P. Goodwin and Ian Harris and Yi He and Chris Hope and Desmond Manful and Osborn, {Timothy J.} and Jeff Price and {Van Vuuren}, Detlef and Wright, {Rebecca Mary}",

note = "Funding Information: This research leading to these results received funding from the UK Government, Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, as part of the Implications of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C project. OA, YH, JP and RW were also funded by joint UK NERC and UK Government Department of BEIS grant NE/P01495X/1. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022, The Author(s).",

year = "2022",

month = jun,

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doi = "10.1007/s10584-021-03277-9",

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Warren, R, Andrews, O, Brown, S, Colón-González, FJ, Forstenhäusler, N, Gernaat, DEHJ, Goodwin, P, Harris, I, He, Y, Hope, C, Manful, D, Osborn, TJ, Price, J, Van Vuuren, D & Wright, RM 2022, 'Quantifying risks avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels', Climatic change, vol. 172, no. 3-4, 39. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03277-9

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T1 - Quantifying risks avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels

AU - Warren, Rachel

AU - Andrews, Oliver

AU - Brown, Sally

AU - Colón-González, Felipe J.

AU - Forstenhäusler, Nicole

AU - Gernaat, David E.H.J.

AU - Goodwin, P.

AU - Harris, Ian

AU - He, Yi

AU - Hope, Chris

AU - Manful, Desmond

AU - Osborn, Timothy J.

AU - Price, Jeff

AU - Van Vuuren, Detlef

AU - Wright, Rebecca Mary

N1 - Funding Information: This research leading to these results received funding from the UK Government, Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, as part of the Implications of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C project. OA, YH, JP and RW were also funded by joint UK NERC and UK Government Department of BEIS grant NE/P01495X/1. Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).

PY - 2022/6/29

Y1 - 2022/6/29

N2 - The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global warming to ‘well below 2 °C’ and to ‘pursue efforts’ to limit it to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify global and regional risk-related metrics associated with these levels of warming that capture climate change–related changes in exposure to water scarcity and heat stress, vector-borne disease, coastal and fluvial flooding and projected impacts on agriculture and the economy, allowing for uncertainties in regional climate projection. Risk-related metrics associated with 2 °C warming, depending on sector, are reduced by 10–44% globally if warming is further reduced to 1.5 °C. Comparing with a baseline in which warming of 3.66 °C occurs by 2100, constraining warming to 1.5 °C reduces these risk indicators globally by 32–85%, and constraining warming to 2 °C reduces them by 26–74%. In percentage terms, avoided risk is highest for fluvial flooding, drought, and heat stress, but in absolute terms risk reduction is greatest for drought. Although water stress decreases in some regions, it is often accompanied by additional exposure to flooding. The magnitude of the percentage of damage avoided is similar to that calculated for avoided global economic risk associated with these same climate change scenarios. We also identify West Africa, India and North America as hotspots of climate change risk in the future.

AB - The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global warming to ‘well below 2 °C’ and to ‘pursue efforts’ to limit it to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify global and regional risk-related metrics associated with these levels of warming that capture climate change–related changes in exposure to water scarcity and heat stress, vector-borne disease, coastal and fluvial flooding and projected impacts on agriculture and the economy, allowing for uncertainties in regional climate projection. Risk-related metrics associated with 2 °C warming, depending on sector, are reduced by 10–44% globally if warming is further reduced to 1.5 °C. Comparing with a baseline in which warming of 3.66 °C occurs by 2100, constraining warming to 1.5 °C reduces these risk indicators globally by 32–85%, and constraining warming to 2 °C reduces them by 26–74%. In percentage terms, avoided risk is highest for fluvial flooding, drought, and heat stress, but in absolute terms risk reduction is greatest for drought. Although water stress decreases in some regions, it is often accompanied by additional exposure to flooding. The magnitude of the percentage of damage avoided is similar to that calculated for avoided global economic risk associated with these same climate change scenarios. We also identify West Africa, India and North America as hotspots of climate change risk in the future.

KW - Avoided impacts

KW - Climate change

KW - Economic damages

KW - Fluvial flooding

KW - Hotspots

KW - Mitigation

KW - Paris Agreement

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