Recurrence of bovine tuberculosis breakdowns in Great Britain: risk factors and prediction

K Karolemeas; T J McKinley; R S Clifton-Hadley; A V Goodchild; A Mitchell; W T Johnston; A J K Conlan; C A Donnelly; J L N Wood

doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2011.06.004

Recurrence of bovine tuberculosis breakdowns in Great Britain: risk factors and prediction

K Karolemeas, T J McKinley, R S Clifton-Hadley, A V Goodchild, A Mitchell, W T Johnston, A J K Conlan, C A Donnelly, J L N Wood

Health Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is an important economic disease worldwide with implications for both animal and human health. In Great Britain the number of herds that test positive for bTB, termed "breakdowns", has increased over the last two decades. Despite more intensive testing during a breakdown, around 23% of breakdowns recur within 12 months of the previous breakdown ending, and around 38% within 24 months. These "recurrent" breakdowns may be important for onward transmission of infection. Detailed case-control data were analysed to identify factors associated with recurrence within 12 months. The model predicted 83% of all recurrent breakdowns, with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 44%. A further model, restricted to data currently available nationally, was not sufficient to predict recurrence reliably; at a sensitivity of 72-76%, the PPV was 33-36%, when validated on independent data. Factors identified to be associated with recurrence are consistent with previous studies; namely, the number of reactors, a recent bTB history in the herd and a lack of association with the confirmation status of the initial breakdown. These variables are indicative of a higher level of infection or residual infection, and could be useful in the future development of predictive models for bTB recurrence.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	22-9
Number of pages	8
Journal	Preventive veterinary medicine
Volume	102
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2011.06.004
Publication status	Published - 1 Oct 2011

Access to Document

10.1016/j.prevetmed.2011.06.004

Cite this

@article{cdea22f69b074907ae185f993a56ce4e,

title = "Recurrence of bovine tuberculosis breakdowns in Great Britain: risk factors and prediction",

abstract = "Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is an important economic disease worldwide with implications for both animal and human health. In Great Britain the number of herds that test positive for bTB, termed {"}breakdowns{"}, has increased over the last two decades. Despite more intensive testing during a breakdown, around 23% of breakdowns recur within 12 months of the previous breakdown ending, and around 38% within 24 months. These {"}recurrent{"} breakdowns may be important for onward transmission of infection. Detailed case-control data were analysed to identify factors associated with recurrence within 12 months. The model predicted 83% of all recurrent breakdowns, with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 44%. A further model, restricted to data currently available nationally, was not sufficient to predict recurrence reliably; at a sensitivity of 72-76%, the PPV was 33-36%, when validated on independent data. Factors identified to be associated with recurrence are consistent with previous studies; namely, the number of reactors, a recent bTB history in the herd and a lack of association with the confirmation status of the initial breakdown. These variables are indicative of a higher level of infection or residual infection, and could be useful in the future development of predictive models for bTB recurrence.",

author = "K Karolemeas and McKinley, {T J} and Clifton-Hadley, {R S} and Goodchild, {A V} and A Mitchell and Johnston, {W T} and Conlan, {A J K} and Donnelly, {C A} and Wood, {J L N}",

year = "2011",

month = oct,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1016/j.prevetmed.2011.06.004",

language = "English",

volume = "102",

pages = "22--9",

journal = "Preventive veterinary medicine",

publisher = "Elsevier",

number = "1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Recurrence of bovine tuberculosis breakdowns in Great Britain

T2 - risk factors and prediction

AU - Karolemeas, K

AU - McKinley, T J

AU - Clifton-Hadley, R S

AU - Goodchild, A V

AU - Mitchell, A

AU - Johnston, W T

AU - Conlan, A J K

AU - Donnelly, C A

AU - Wood, J L N

PY - 2011/10/1

Y1 - 2011/10/1

N2 - Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is an important economic disease worldwide with implications for both animal and human health. In Great Britain the number of herds that test positive for bTB, termed "breakdowns", has increased over the last two decades. Despite more intensive testing during a breakdown, around 23% of breakdowns recur within 12 months of the previous breakdown ending, and around 38% within 24 months. These "recurrent" breakdowns may be important for onward transmission of infection. Detailed case-control data were analysed to identify factors associated with recurrence within 12 months. The model predicted 83% of all recurrent breakdowns, with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 44%. A further model, restricted to data currently available nationally, was not sufficient to predict recurrence reliably; at a sensitivity of 72-76%, the PPV was 33-36%, when validated on independent data. Factors identified to be associated with recurrence are consistent with previous studies; namely, the number of reactors, a recent bTB history in the herd and a lack of association with the confirmation status of the initial breakdown. These variables are indicative of a higher level of infection or residual infection, and could be useful in the future development of predictive models for bTB recurrence.

AB - Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is an important economic disease worldwide with implications for both animal and human health. In Great Britain the number of herds that test positive for bTB, termed "breakdowns", has increased over the last two decades. Despite more intensive testing during a breakdown, around 23% of breakdowns recur within 12 months of the previous breakdown ending, and around 38% within 24 months. These "recurrent" breakdowns may be important for onward transmission of infection. Detailed case-control data were analysed to identify factors associated with recurrence within 12 months. The model predicted 83% of all recurrent breakdowns, with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 44%. A further model, restricted to data currently available nationally, was not sufficient to predict recurrence reliably; at a sensitivity of 72-76%, the PPV was 33-36%, when validated on independent data. Factors identified to be associated with recurrence are consistent with previous studies; namely, the number of reactors, a recent bTB history in the herd and a lack of association with the confirmation status of the initial breakdown. These variables are indicative of a higher level of infection or residual infection, and could be useful in the future development of predictive models for bTB recurrence.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84860390073&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2011.06.004

DO - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2011.06.004

M3 - Article

C2 - 21767886

VL - 102

SP - 22

EP - 29

JO - Preventive veterinary medicine

JF - Preventive veterinary medicine

IS - 1

ER -

Recurrence of bovine tuberculosis breakdowns in Great Britain: risk factors and prediction

Abstract

Access to Document

Other files and links

Cite this