Stochastic hybrid embodied CO2-eq analysis: An application to the Irish apartment building sector

TY - JOUR

T1 - Stochastic hybrid embodied CO2-eq analysis

T2 - An application to the Irish apartment building sector

AU - Acquaye, Adolf A.

AU - Duffy, Aidan P.

AU - Basu, Biswajit

PY - 2011/6

Y1 - 2011/6

N2 - Although embodied CO2-eq analysis has seen recent developments as evident in the establishment of the ISO 14040 and 14044 LCA standards, it is recognized that due to weaknesses in gathering data on product-related emissions, embodied CO2-eq values are probabilistic. This paper presents a stochastic analysis of hybrid embodied CO2-eq in buildings to account for this weakness in traditional methods and, by way of example, applies it to an Irish construction-sector case study. Using seven apartment buildings, 70,000 results are simulated with Monte Carlo analysis and used to derive probabilistic and cumulative embodied CO2-eq intensity distributions for apartment buildings in Ireland. A Wakeby distribution with known statistical parameters and uncertainty was derived for the average embodied CO2-eq intensity of apartment building in Ireland. The mean hybrid embodied CO2-eq (ECO2-eq) intensity was estimated to be 1636 gCO(2)-eq/(sic) with an uncertainty of 73 gCO(2)-eq/(sic). The stochastic analysis helps to account for variability in input variables into embodied CO2-eq analysis. The application of the stochastic embodied CO2-eq analysis as demonstrated in this study can be extended to other building sectors and countries and can form the basis for the development of evidence-based policy formulation since it provides greater information on embodied CO2-eq intensities of buildings than deterministic approaches. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

AB - Although embodied CO2-eq analysis has seen recent developments as evident in the establishment of the ISO 14040 and 14044 LCA standards, it is recognized that due to weaknesses in gathering data on product-related emissions, embodied CO2-eq values are probabilistic. This paper presents a stochastic analysis of hybrid embodied CO2-eq in buildings to account for this weakness in traditional methods and, by way of example, applies it to an Irish construction-sector case study. Using seven apartment buildings, 70,000 results are simulated with Monte Carlo analysis and used to derive probabilistic and cumulative embodied CO2-eq intensity distributions for apartment buildings in Ireland. A Wakeby distribution with known statistical parameters and uncertainty was derived for the average embodied CO2-eq intensity of apartment building in Ireland. The mean hybrid embodied CO2-eq (ECO2-eq) intensity was estimated to be 1636 gCO(2)-eq/(sic) with an uncertainty of 73 gCO(2)-eq/(sic). The stochastic analysis helps to account for variability in input variables into embodied CO2-eq analysis. The application of the stochastic embodied CO2-eq analysis as demonstrated in this study can be extended to other building sectors and countries and can form the basis for the development of evidence-based policy formulation since it provides greater information on embodied CO2-eq intensities of buildings than deterministic approaches. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

KW - Hybrid embodied CO2-eq

KW - Stochastic analysis

KW - Construction sub-sector

KW - Apartment buildings

KW - Probabilistic and cumulative distributions

KW - Monte Carlo analysis

KW - GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS

KW - ENERGY

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=79953764689&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.enbuild.2011.01.006

DO - 10.1016/j.enbuild.2011.01.006

M3 - Article

SN - 0378-7788

VL - 43

SP - 1295

EP - 1303

JO - Energy and buildings

JF - Energy and buildings

IS - 6

ER -