Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

TY - JOUR

T1 - Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

AU - Kopp, Robert E.

AU - Kemp, Andrew C.

AU - Bittermann, Klaus

AU - Horton, Benjamin P.

AU - Donnelly, Jeffrey P.

AU - Gehrels, W. Roland

AU - Hay, Carling C.

AU - Mitrovica, Jerry X.

AU - Morrow, Eric D.

AU - Rahmstorf, Stefan

PY - 2016/2/22

Y1 - 2016/2/22

N2 - We assess the relationship between temperature and global sealevel (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tidegauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0-700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000-1400 CE is associated with ~0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P ≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P =0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change¡¯s Fifth Assessment Report.

AB - We assess the relationship between temperature and global sealevel (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tidegauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0-700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000-1400 CE is associated with ~0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P ≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P =0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change¡¯s Fifth Assessment Report.

KW - Climate

KW - Common Era

KW - Late Holocene

KW - Ocean

KW - Sea level

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84962607393&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1073/pnas.1517056113

DO - 10.1073/pnas.1517056113

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84962607393

SN - 0027-8424

VL - 113

SP - E1434-E1441

JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

IS - 11

ER -