The biological carbon pump in CMIP6 models: 21st century trends and uncertainties

Jamie D. Wilson; Oliver Andrews; Anna Katavouta; Francisco de Melo Viríssimo; Ros M. Death; Markus Adloff; Chelsey A. Baker; Benedict Blackledge; Fraser W. Goldsworth; Alan T. Kennedy-Asser; Qian Liu; Katie R. Sieradzan; Emily Vosper; Rui Ying

doi:10.1073/pnas.2204369119

The biological carbon pump in CMIP6 models: 21st century trends and uncertainties

Jamie D. Wilson^*, Oliver Andrews, Anna Katavouta, Francisco de Melo Viríssimo, Ros M. Death, Markus Adloff, Chelsey A. Baker, Benedict Blackledge, Fraser W. Goldsworth, Alan T. Kennedy-Asser, Qian Liu, Katie R. Sieradzan, Emily Vosper, Rui Ying

^*Corresponding author for this work

Environment and Geography

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

The biological carbon pump (BCP) stores ∼1,700 Pg C from the atmosphere in the ocean interior, but the magnitude and direction of future changes in carbon sequestration by the BCP are uncertain. We quantify global trends in export production, sinking organic carbon fluxes, and sequestered carbon in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) future projections, finding a consistent 19 to 48 Pg C increase in carbon sequestration over the 21st century for the SSP3-7.0 scenario, equivalent to 5 to 17% of the total increase of carbon in the ocean by 2100. This is in contrast to a global decrease in export production of –0.15 to –1.44 Pg C y⁻¹. However, there is significant uncertainty in the modeled future fluxes of organic carbon to the deep ocean associated with a range of different processes resolved across models. We demonstrate that organic carbon fluxes at 1,000 m are a good predictor of long-term carbon sequestration and suggest this is an important metric of the BCP that should be prioritized in future model studies.

Original language	English
Article number	e2204369119
Number of pages	3
Journal	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume	119
Issue number	29
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2204369119
Publication status	Published - 19 Jul 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. J.D.W. acknowledges support from the AXA Research Fund. F.d.M.V. was funded by an European Research Council Consolidator grant (GOCART,agreement724416),byaLargeGrantfromtheUKNaturalEnvironment Research Council (COMICS, agreements NE/M020835/1 and NE/M020835/2), and by a UK Natural Environment Research Council RoSES program grant (CUSTARD, agreement NE/P021247/2). R.Y. acknowledges support from China Scholarship Council (grant 202006380070). C.A.B. was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council through grant NE/R015953/1. We thank the Bristol CMIP6 Data Hackathon for providing the opportunity and support to make this project possible. The 2021 Climate Data Challenge hackathon series, including the events hosted by Met Office Academic Partnership universities, was supported by the Met Office. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. J.D.W. also thanks B. B. Cael for earlier discussions that supported the methodology in SI Appendix.

Funding Information:
J.D.W. acknowledges support from the AXA Research Fund. F.d.M.V. was funded by an European Research Council Consolidator grant (GOCART, agreement 724416), by a Large Grant from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (COMICS, agreements NE/M020835/1 and NE/M020835/2), and by a UK Natural Environment Research Council RoSES program grant (CUSTARD, agreement NE/P021247/2). R.Y. acknowledges support from China Scholarship Council (grant 202006380070). C.A.B. was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council through grant NE/R015953/1. We thank the Bristol CMIP6 Data Hackathon for providing the opportunity and support to make this project possible. The 2021 Climate Data Challenge hackathon series, including the events hosted by Met Office Academic Partnership universities, was supported by the Met Office. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Pro-gramme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. J.D.W. also thanks B. B. Cael for earlier discussions that supported the methodology in SI Appendix.

Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2022 the Author(s).

Keywords

biological carbon pump
carbon cycle
CMIP6
marine biogeochemistry

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Wilson, J. D., Andrews, O., Katavouta, A., de Melo Viríssimo, F., Death, R. M., Adloff, M., Baker, C. A., Blackledge, B., Goldsworth, F. W., Kennedy-Asser, A. T., Liu, Q., Sieradzan, K. R., Vosper, E., & Ying, R. (2022). The biological carbon pump in CMIP6 models: 21st century trends and uncertainties. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119(29), Article e2204369119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2204369119

@article{d572860b24d3476badb6d798b6db3b06,

title = "The biological carbon pump in CMIP6 models: 21st century trends and uncertainties",

abstract = "The biological carbon pump (BCP) stores ∼1,700 Pg C from the atmosphere in the ocean interior, but the magnitude and direction of future changes in carbon sequestration by the BCP are uncertain. We quantify global trends in export production, sinking organic carbon fluxes, and sequestered carbon in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) future projections, finding a consistent 19 to 48 Pg C increase in carbon sequestration over the 21st century for the SSP3-7.0 scenario, equivalent to 5 to 17% of the total increase of carbon in the ocean by 2100. This is in contrast to a global decrease in export production of –0.15 to –1.44 Pg C y−1. However, there is significant uncertainty in the modeled future fluxes of organic carbon to the deep ocean associated with a range of different processes resolved across models. We demonstrate that organic carbon fluxes at 1,000 m are a good predictor of long-term carbon sequestration and suggest this is an important metric of the BCP that should be prioritized in future model studies.",

keywords = "biological carbon pump, carbon cycle, CMIP6, marine biogeochemistry",

author = "Wilson, {Jamie D.} and Oliver Andrews and Anna Katavouta and {de Melo Vir{\'i}ssimo}, Francisco and Death, {Ros M.} and Markus Adloff and Baker, {Chelsey A.} and Benedict Blackledge and Goldsworth, {Fraser W.} and Kennedy-Asser, {Alan T.} and Qian Liu and Sieradzan, {Katie R.} and Emily Vosper and Rui Ying",

note = "Funding Information: ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. J.D.W. acknowledges support from the AXA Research Fund. F.d.M.V. was funded by an European Research Council Consolidator grant (GOCART,agreement724416),byaLargeGrantfromtheUKNaturalEnvironment Research Council (COMICS, agreements NE/M020835/1 and NE/M020835/2), and by a UK Natural Environment Research Council RoSES program grant (CUSTARD, agreement NE/P021247/2). R.Y. acknowledges support from China Scholarship Council (grant 202006380070). C.A.B. was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council through grant NE/R015953/1. We thank the Bristol CMIP6 Data Hackathon for providing the opportunity and support to make this project possible. The 2021 Climate Data Challenge hackathon series, including the events hosted by Met Office Academic Partnership universities, was supported by the Met Office. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. J.D.W. also thanks B. B. Cael for earlier discussions that supported the methodology in SI Appendix. Funding Information: J.D.W. acknowledges support from the AXA Research Fund. F.d.M.V. was funded by an European Research Council Consolidator grant (GOCART, agreement 724416), by a Large Grant from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (COMICS, agreements NE/M020835/1 and NE/M020835/2), and by a UK Natural Environment Research Council RoSES program grant (CUSTARD, agreement NE/P021247/2). R.Y. acknowledges support from China Scholarship Council (grant 202006380070). C.A.B. was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council through grant NE/R015953/1. We thank the Bristol CMIP6 Data Hackathon for providing the opportunity and support to make this project possible. The 2021 Climate Data Challenge hackathon series, including the events hosted by Met Office Academic Partnership universities, was supported by the Met Office. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Pro-gramme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. J.D.W. also thanks B. B. Cael for earlier discussions that supported the methodology in SI Appendix. Publisher Copyright: Copyright {\textcopyright} 2022 the Author(s).",

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Wilson, JD, Andrews, O, Katavouta, A, de Melo Viríssimo, F, Death, RM, Adloff, M, Baker, CA, Blackledge, B, Goldsworth, FW, Kennedy-Asser, AT, Liu, Q, Sieradzan, KR, Vosper, E & Ying, R 2022, 'The biological carbon pump in CMIP6 models: 21st century trends and uncertainties', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 119, no. 29, e2204369119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2204369119

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T1 - The biological carbon pump in CMIP6 models

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AU - Wilson, Jamie D.

AU - Andrews, Oliver

AU - Katavouta, Anna

AU - de Melo Viríssimo, Francisco

AU - Death, Ros M.

AU - Adloff, Markus

AU - Baker, Chelsey A.

AU - Blackledge, Benedict

AU - Goldsworth, Fraser W.

AU - Kennedy-Asser, Alan T.

AU - Liu, Qian

AU - Sieradzan, Katie R.

AU - Vosper, Emily

AU - Ying, Rui

N1 - Funding Information: ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. J.D.W. acknowledges support from the AXA Research Fund. F.d.M.V. was funded by an European Research Council Consolidator grant (GOCART,agreement724416),byaLargeGrantfromtheUKNaturalEnvironment Research Council (COMICS, agreements NE/M020835/1 and NE/M020835/2), and by a UK Natural Environment Research Council RoSES program grant (CUSTARD, agreement NE/P021247/2). R.Y. acknowledges support from China Scholarship Council (grant 202006380070). C.A.B. was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council through grant NE/R015953/1. We thank the Bristol CMIP6 Data Hackathon for providing the opportunity and support to make this project possible. The 2021 Climate Data Challenge hackathon series, including the events hosted by Met Office Academic Partnership universities, was supported by the Met Office. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. J.D.W. also thanks B. B. Cael for earlier discussions that supported the methodology in SI Appendix. Funding Information: J.D.W. acknowledges support from the AXA Research Fund. F.d.M.V. was funded by an European Research Council Consolidator grant (GOCART, agreement 724416), by a Large Grant from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (COMICS, agreements NE/M020835/1 and NE/M020835/2), and by a UK Natural Environment Research Council RoSES program grant (CUSTARD, agreement NE/P021247/2). R.Y. acknowledges support from China Scholarship Council (grant 202006380070). C.A.B. was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council through grant NE/R015953/1. We thank the Bristol CMIP6 Data Hackathon for providing the opportunity and support to make this project possible. The 2021 Climate Data Challenge hackathon series, including the events hosted by Met Office Academic Partnership universities, was supported by the Met Office. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Pro-gramme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. J.D.W. also thanks B. B. Cael for earlier discussions that supported the methodology in SI Appendix. Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2022 the Author(s).

PY - 2022/7/19

Y1 - 2022/7/19

N2 - The biological carbon pump (BCP) stores ∼1,700 Pg C from the atmosphere in the ocean interior, but the magnitude and direction of future changes in carbon sequestration by the BCP are uncertain. We quantify global trends in export production, sinking organic carbon fluxes, and sequestered carbon in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) future projections, finding a consistent 19 to 48 Pg C increase in carbon sequestration over the 21st century for the SSP3-7.0 scenario, equivalent to 5 to 17% of the total increase of carbon in the ocean by 2100. This is in contrast to a global decrease in export production of –0.15 to –1.44 Pg C y−1. However, there is significant uncertainty in the modeled future fluxes of organic carbon to the deep ocean associated with a range of different processes resolved across models. We demonstrate that organic carbon fluxes at 1,000 m are a good predictor of long-term carbon sequestration and suggest this is an important metric of the BCP that should be prioritized in future model studies.

AB - The biological carbon pump (BCP) stores ∼1,700 Pg C from the atmosphere in the ocean interior, but the magnitude and direction of future changes in carbon sequestration by the BCP are uncertain. We quantify global trends in export production, sinking organic carbon fluxes, and sequestered carbon in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) future projections, finding a consistent 19 to 48 Pg C increase in carbon sequestration over the 21st century for the SSP3-7.0 scenario, equivalent to 5 to 17% of the total increase of carbon in the ocean by 2100. This is in contrast to a global decrease in export production of –0.15 to –1.44 Pg C y−1. However, there is significant uncertainty in the modeled future fluxes of organic carbon to the deep ocean associated with a range of different processes resolved across models. We demonstrate that organic carbon fluxes at 1,000 m are a good predictor of long-term carbon sequestration and suggest this is an important metric of the BCP that should be prioritized in future model studies.

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JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

IS - 29

M1 - e2204369119

ER -

The biological carbon pump in CMIP6 models: 21st century trends and uncertainties

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

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