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The effect of valence and ideology in campaign conversion: panel evidence from three Spanish general elections

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Publication details

JournalPublic Choice
DateAccepted/In press - 21 Feb 2018
DateE-pub ahead of print (current) - 28 Feb 2018
Number of pages25
Pages (from-to)1-25
Early online date28/02/18
Original languageEnglish


This paper studies changes in voting preferences over election campaigns. Building on the literature on spatial models and valence issues, we study whether (1) ideological distance to political parties, (2) assessments of party competence to handle different policy issues, and (3) voter-updated candidate evaluations are factors that explain shifts in voter choices in the weeks preceding the election. To test our hypotheses, we use data from three survey panels conducted for the 2008, 2011 and 2015 Spanish general elections. Our findings show that valence factors are more influential than ideological indifference to account for campaign conversion.

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© Springer Nature 2018. This is an author-produced version of the published paper. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher’s self-archiving policy. Further copying may not be permitted; contact the publisher for details.

    Research areas

  • Conversion effect, Election campaigns, Panel analysis, SPAIN, Spatial models, Valence politics

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