The Explanatory and Predictive Power of Non Two-Stage-Probability Theories of Decision Making Under Ambiguity

John D. Hey, Noemi Pace

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Representing ambiguity in the laboratory using a Bingo Blower (which is transparent and not manipulable) and asking the subjects a series of allocation questions, we obtain data from which we can estimate by maximum likelihood methods (with explicit assumptions about the errors made by the subjects) a significant subset of particular parameterisations of the empirically relevant models of behaviour under ambiguity, and compare their relative explanatory and predictive abilities. Our results suggest that not all recent models of behaviour represent a major improvement in explanatory and predictive power, particularly the more theoretically sophisticated ones.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-29
Number of pages29
JournalJournal of Risk and Uncertainty
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - Aug 2014


  • Alpha model
  • Ambiguity
  • Bingo blower
  • Choquet expected utility
  • Contraction model
  • Rank dependent expected utility
  • Subjective expected utility
  • Vector expected utility

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