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Lewandowsky_2018_Environ._Res._Lett._13_123007
3.37 MB, PDF document
Journal | Environmental Research Letters |
---|---|
Date | Accepted/In press - 23 Nov 2018 |
Date | Published (current) - 19 Dec 2018 |
Issue number | 12 |
Volume | 13 |
Number of pages | 26 |
Original language | English |
We review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMST products and historical versions of model projections that existed at the times when claims about a divergence were made. The comparisons are conducted with a variety of statistical techniques that correct for problems in previous work, including using continuous trends and a Monte Carlo approach to simulate internal variability. The results show that there is no robust statistical evidence for a divergence between models and observations. The impression of a divergence early in the 21st century was caused by various biases in model interpretation and in the observations, and was unsupported by robust statistics.
© 2018 The Author(s).
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