The 'pause' in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observations

TY - JOUR

T1 - The 'pause' in global warming in historical context

T2 - (II). Comparing models to observations

AU - Lewandowsky, Stephan

AU - Cowtan, Kevin

AU - Risbey, James S.

AU - Mann, Michael E.

AU - Steinman, Byron A.

AU - Oreskes, Naomi

AU - Rahmstorf, Stefan

N1 - © 2018 The Author(s).

PY - 2018/12/19

Y1 - 2018/12/19

N2 - We review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMST products and historical versions of model projections that existed at the times when claims about a divergence were made. The comparisons are conducted with a variety of statistical techniques that correct for problems in previous work, including using continuous trends and a Monte Carlo approach to simulate internal variability. The results show that there is no robust statistical evidence for a divergence between models and observations. The impression of a divergence early in the 21st century was caused by various biases in model interpretation and in the observations, and was unsupported by robust statistics.

AB - We review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMST products and historical versions of model projections that existed at the times when claims about a divergence were made. The comparisons are conducted with a variety of statistical techniques that correct for problems in previous work, including using continuous trends and a Monte Carlo approach to simulate internal variability. The results show that there is no robust statistical evidence for a divergence between models and observations. The impression of a divergence early in the 21st century was caused by various biases in model interpretation and in the observations, and was unsupported by robust statistics.

KW - 'pause' in global warming

KW - climate models

KW - climate projections

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85060124018&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf372

DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf372

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85060124018

SN - 1748-9318

VL - 13

JO - Environmental Research Letters

JF - Environmental Research Letters

IS - 12

M1 - 123007

ER -