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From the same journal

The performance of models relating species geographical distributions to climate is independent of trophic level

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Author(s)

  • B Huntley
  • R E Green
  • Y C Collingham
  • J K Hill
  • S G Willis
  • P J Bartlein
  • W Cramer
  • W J M Hagemeijer
  • C J Thomas

Department/unit(s)

Publication details

JournalEcology Letters
DatePublished - May 2004
Issue number5
Volume7
Number of pages10
Pages (from-to)417-426
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

Species - climate 'envelope' models are widely used to evaluate potential climate change impacts upon species and biodiversity. Previous studies have used a variety of methods to fit models making it difficult to assess relative model performance for different taxonomic groups, life forms or trophic levels. Here we use the same climatic data and modelling approach for 306 European species representing three major taxa ( higher plants, insects and birds), and including species of different life form and from four trophic levels. Goodness-of-fit measures showed that useful models were fitted for > 96% of species, and that model performance was related neither to major taxonomic group nor to trophic level. These results confirm that such climate envelope models provide the best approach currently available for evaluating reliably the potential impacts of future climate change upon biodiversity.

    Research areas

  • biodiversity, birds, butterflies, climate change, envelope models, Europe, goodness-of-fit, higher plants, GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE, NORTH-AMERICA, RESPONSE SURFACES, ENVELOPE, COMMUNITIES, MIGRATION, IMPACTS, SHIFTS, RANGE, TREE

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