The Science and Superstition of Quantitative Risk Assessment

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

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Title of host publicationProceedings of PSAM 11 & ESREL 2012
DatePublished - Jul 2012
Pages2292-2301
Number of pages10
PublisherInternational Association of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, IAPSAM
Volume3
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

In safety, environmental, and financial regulation the public are often asked to accept estimates of a concept, “risk”, that they cannot directly perceive. Faith in these estimates is supported by logical reasoning but not by empirical evidence. Unfortunately, the evidence that does exist about risk phenomena indicates that human reasoning about risk is highly unreliable.

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