TY - GEN
T1 - Uncertainty analysis and its application to service contracts
AU - Kreye, Melanie E.
AU - Newnes, Linda B.
AU - Goh, Yee Mey
PY - 2011
Y1 - 2011
N2 - Because of the transformation of market structures into the direction of sensitization, manufacturing companies are forced to compete through the supply of services as opposed to products. Competing for these service contracts, particularly during bidding, the decision makers face various uncertainties that influence their decisions. This paper presents a holistic approach for identifying, modeling and representing these uncertainties to enable a more informed decision. As current literature lacks a holistic approach to characterize uncertainty, this paper proposes such an approach by classifying uncertainty into five layers. It is described how they offer an integrated approach to describing the uncertainty inherent in a situation. This classification is then applied to the bidding situation for a service contract in the form of a conceptual framework. This framework depicts the influencing factors on a bidding decision, namely, the contract conditions, internal company perspective, competitors and customer. To demonstrate the use of the uncertainty classification in detail the influencing factor of the customer is used as an exemplar. The uncertainty connected to the customer is characterized and the techniques for modeling the uncertainty are described. It is explained how the can be included in a decision matrix representing the probability of winning the contract.
AB - Because of the transformation of market structures into the direction of sensitization, manufacturing companies are forced to compete through the supply of services as opposed to products. Competing for these service contracts, particularly during bidding, the decision makers face various uncertainties that influence their decisions. This paper presents a holistic approach for identifying, modeling and representing these uncertainties to enable a more informed decision. As current literature lacks a holistic approach to characterize uncertainty, this paper proposes such an approach by classifying uncertainty into five layers. It is described how they offer an integrated approach to describing the uncertainty inherent in a situation. This classification is then applied to the bidding situation for a service contract in the form of a conceptual framework. This framework depicts the influencing factors on a bidding decision, namely, the contract conditions, internal company perspective, competitors and customer. To demonstrate the use of the uncertainty classification in detail the influencing factor of the customer is used as an exemplar. The uncertainty connected to the customer is characterized and the techniques for modeling the uncertainty are described. It is explained how the can be included in a decision matrix representing the probability of winning the contract.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84863573300&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1115/DETC2011-48106
DO - 10.1115/DETC2011-48106
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84863573300
SN - 9780791854860
T3 - Proceedings of the ASME Design Engineering Technical Conference
SP - 961
EP - 972
BT - ASME 2011 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE 2011
T2 - ASME 2011 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE 2011
Y2 - 28 August 2011 through 31 August 2011
ER -