UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR MULTI-REGION INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS - A CASE STUDY OF THE UK'S CARBON FOOTPRINT

Manfred Lenzen; Richard Wood; Thomas Wiedmann

doi:10.1080/09535311003661226

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR MULTI-REGION INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS - A CASE STUDY OF THE UK'S CARBON FOOTPRINT

Manfred Lenzen, Richard Wood, Thomas Wiedmann

Stockholm Environment Institute at York

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

This paper reviews and demonstrates methods available for estimating standard deviations for carbon multipliers in a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) framework. We attempt to capture all possible variations of underlying data and calculation procedures in a global MRIO model constructed with particular focus on the UK. We consider these variations to be random, and determine the stochastic variation of the whole MRIO system using Monte Carlo techniques. 5000 simulation runs were carried out to determine the standard deviations of multipliers. From these, the standard deviations of components of the UK's carbon footprint were estimated using error propagation. We estimate an 89% probability that the UK's carbon footprint has increased between 1994 and 2004.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	43-63
Number of pages	21
Journal	Economic systems research
Volume	22
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1080/09535311003661226
Publication status	Published - Mar 2010

Keywords

Uncertainty
Multi-region input-output analysis
Monte Carlo analysis
Errors
UK
Carbon footprint
CONSUMER RESPONSIBILITY
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
INTERNATIONAL-TRADE
STOCHASTIC-ANALYSIS
MULTIPLIERS
ERRORS
COEFFICIENTS
SIMULATION
EMISSIONS
PRODUCER

Access to Document

10.1080/09535311003661226

Cite this

@article{d93b2c0b503d4b1cb293439d89c68a68,

title = "UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR MULTI-REGION INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS - A CASE STUDY OF THE UK'S CARBON FOOTPRINT",

abstract = "This paper reviews and demonstrates methods available for estimating standard deviations for carbon multipliers in a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) framework. We attempt to capture all possible variations of underlying data and calculation procedures in a global MRIO model constructed with particular focus on the UK. We consider these variations to be random, and determine the stochastic variation of the whole MRIO system using Monte Carlo techniques. 5000 simulation runs were carried out to determine the standard deviations of multipliers. From these, the standard deviations of components of the UK's carbon footprint were estimated using error propagation. We estimate an 89% probability that the UK's carbon footprint has increased between 1994 and 2004.",

keywords = "Uncertainty, Multi-region input-output analysis, Monte Carlo analysis, Errors, UK, Carbon footprint, CONSUMER RESPONSIBILITY, SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS, INTERNATIONAL-TRADE, STOCHASTIC-ANALYSIS, MULTIPLIERS, ERRORS, COEFFICIENTS, SIMULATION, EMISSIONS, PRODUCER",

author = "Manfred Lenzen and Richard Wood and Thomas Wiedmann",

year = "2010",

month = mar,

doi = "10.1080/09535311003661226",

language = "English",

volume = "22",

pages = "43--63",

journal = "Economic systems research",

issn = "0953-5314",

publisher = "Routledge",

number = "1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR MULTI-REGION INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS - A CASE STUDY OF THE UK'S CARBON FOOTPRINT

AU - Lenzen, Manfred

AU - Wood, Richard

AU - Wiedmann, Thomas

PY - 2010/3

Y1 - 2010/3

N2 - This paper reviews and demonstrates methods available for estimating standard deviations for carbon multipliers in a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) framework. We attempt to capture all possible variations of underlying data and calculation procedures in a global MRIO model constructed with particular focus on the UK. We consider these variations to be random, and determine the stochastic variation of the whole MRIO system using Monte Carlo techniques. 5000 simulation runs were carried out to determine the standard deviations of multipliers. From these, the standard deviations of components of the UK's carbon footprint were estimated using error propagation. We estimate an 89% probability that the UK's carbon footprint has increased between 1994 and 2004.

AB - This paper reviews and demonstrates methods available for estimating standard deviations for carbon multipliers in a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) framework. We attempt to capture all possible variations of underlying data and calculation procedures in a global MRIO model constructed with particular focus on the UK. We consider these variations to be random, and determine the stochastic variation of the whole MRIO system using Monte Carlo techniques. 5000 simulation runs were carried out to determine the standard deviations of multipliers. From these, the standard deviations of components of the UK's carbon footprint were estimated using error propagation. We estimate an 89% probability that the UK's carbon footprint has increased between 1994 and 2004.

KW - Uncertainty

KW - Multi-region input-output analysis

KW - Monte Carlo analysis

KW - Errors

KW - UK

KW - Carbon footprint

KW - CONSUMER RESPONSIBILITY

KW - SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

KW - INTERNATIONAL-TRADE

KW - STOCHASTIC-ANALYSIS

KW - MULTIPLIERS

KW - ERRORS

KW - COEFFICIENTS

KW - SIMULATION

KW - EMISSIONS

KW - PRODUCER

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=77949421640&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1080/09535311003661226

DO - 10.1080/09535311003661226

M3 - Article

SN - 0953-5314

VL - 22

SP - 43

EP - 63

JO - Economic systems research

JF - Economic systems research

IS - 1

ER -

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR MULTI-REGION INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS - A CASE STUDY OF THE UK'S CARBON FOOTPRINT

Abstract

Keywords

Access to Document

Other files and links

Cite this