By the same authors

Using Global VAR Models for Scenario-based Forecasting and Policy Analysis

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter (peer-reviewed)

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Publication details

Title of host publicationThe GVAR Handbook
DatePublished - 2013
Pages97-113
PublisherOxford University Press
Place of PublicationOxford
EditorsHashem Pesaran, Filippo di Mauro
Original languageEnglish
ISBN (Print)978-0-19-967008-6

Abstract

This chapter demonstrates the usefulness of the GVAR modelling framework as a tool for scenario-based forecasting and counterfactual analysis. Working with the GVAR model developed by Greenwood-Nimmo, Nguyen and Shin (2010, J. Appl. Econometrics), we fi…rst show how probabilistic forecasting can be applied to the analysis of global imbalances. Probabilistic forecasting involves evaluating the conditional probability of a given event or combination of events over a defi…ned horizon by means of model-based simulations. To demonstrate the usefulness of this approach, we develop a simple four-way probabilistic classifi…catory system built around the notions of balancing improvement in the trade balance, unbalancing improvement, balancing deterioration and unbalancing deterioration.
We then extend a similar approach in a counterfactual context by constructing a range of scenarios as linear combinations of generalised impulse responses. We conclude that GVAR models are particularly well-suited to scenario-based analyses such as ours as they have the potential to analyse singularly rich datasets that allow the modeler to construct a wide range of policy-relevant scenarios.

    Research areas

  • Global VAR, Scenario-Based Forecasting and Analysis, Global Imbalances.

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