By the same authors

Voting and the macroeconomy: separating trend from cycle

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paper

Standard

Voting and the macroeconomy : separating trend from cycle. / Maloney, John; Pickering, Andrew Christopher.

York, UK : Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, 2011. p. 1-45 (University of York Discussion Papers in Economics).

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paper

Harvard

Maloney, J & Pickering, AC 2011 'Voting and the macroeconomy: separating trend from cycle' University of York Discussion Papers in Economics, Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, York, UK, pp. 1-45. <http://www.york.ac.uk/media/economics/documents/discussionpapers/2011/1114.pdf>

APA

Maloney, J., & Pickering, A. C. (2011). Voting and the macroeconomy: separating trend from cycle. (pp. 1-45). (University of York Discussion Papers in Economics). Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York. http://www.york.ac.uk/media/economics/documents/discussionpapers/2011/1114.pdf

Vancouver

Maloney J, Pickering AC. Voting and the macroeconomy: separating trend from cycle. York, UK: Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York. 2011 Jul 12, p. 1-45. (University of York Discussion Papers in Economics).

Author

Maloney, John ; Pickering, Andrew Christopher. / Voting and the macroeconomy : separating trend from cycle. York, UK : Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, 2011. pp. 1-45 (University of York Discussion Papers in Economics).

Bibtex - Download

@techreport{f5b926cda8254e2ab37e726f1f4ee95b,
title = "Voting and the macroeconomy: separating trend from cycle",
abstract = "Voters respond differently to trend growth as opposed to economic cycles in GDP.When assessing incumbent competence the rational voter fi…lters out economic cycles when they are the product of external shocks but rewards strong trend growth over the previous term of office. Voters also respond to policy platforms, and parties closest to the median voter have an advantage {\`a} la Downs (1957). This advantage is theorized to be heightened in times of recession. Using data from elections in OECD countries and a much more exacting econometric speci…cation than used in previous analyses we find robust evidence of a positive vote response to strong performance in trend growth. We also fi…nd evidence to support the hypothesis that centralizing garners additional votes during recession.",
keywords = "economic voting, competence, median voter, voter rationality",
author = "John Maloney and Pickering, {Andrew Christopher}",
year = "2011",
month = jul,
day = "12",
language = "English",
volume = "11/14",
series = "University of York Discussion Papers in Economics",
publisher = "Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York",
pages = "1--45",
type = "WorkingPaper",
institution = "Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York",

}

RIS (suitable for import to EndNote) - Download

TY - UNPB

T1 - Voting and the macroeconomy

T2 - separating trend from cycle

AU - Maloney, John

AU - Pickering, Andrew Christopher

PY - 2011/7/12

Y1 - 2011/7/12

N2 - Voters respond differently to trend growth as opposed to economic cycles in GDP.When assessing incumbent competence the rational voter fi…lters out economic cycles when they are the product of external shocks but rewards strong trend growth over the previous term of office. Voters also respond to policy platforms, and parties closest to the median voter have an advantage à la Downs (1957). This advantage is theorized to be heightened in times of recession. Using data from elections in OECD countries and a much more exacting econometric speci…cation than used in previous analyses we find robust evidence of a positive vote response to strong performance in trend growth. We also fi…nd evidence to support the hypothesis that centralizing garners additional votes during recession.

AB - Voters respond differently to trend growth as opposed to economic cycles in GDP.When assessing incumbent competence the rational voter fi…lters out economic cycles when they are the product of external shocks but rewards strong trend growth over the previous term of office. Voters also respond to policy platforms, and parties closest to the median voter have an advantage à la Downs (1957). This advantage is theorized to be heightened in times of recession. Using data from elections in OECD countries and a much more exacting econometric speci…cation than used in previous analyses we find robust evidence of a positive vote response to strong performance in trend growth. We also fi…nd evidence to support the hypothesis that centralizing garners additional votes during recession.

KW - economic voting

KW - competence

KW - median voter

KW - voter rationality

M3 - Discussion paper

VL - 11/14

T3 - University of York Discussion Papers in Economics

SP - 1

EP - 45

BT - Voting and the macroeconomy

PB - Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York

CY - York, UK

ER -