Activities per year
Abstract
Voters respond differently to trend growth as opposed to economic cycles in GDP.
When assessing incumbent competence the rational voter fi…lters out economic cycles when they are the product of external shocks but rewards strong trend growth over the previous term of office. Voters also respond to policy platforms, and parties closest to the median voter have an advantage à la Downs (1957). This advantage is theorized to be heightened in times of recession. Using data from elections in OECD countries and a much more exacting econometric speci…cation than used in previous analyses we find robust evidence of a positive vote response to strong performance in trend growth. We also fi…nd evidence to support the hypothesis that centralizing garners additional votes during recession.
When assessing incumbent competence the rational voter fi…lters out economic cycles when they are the product of external shocks but rewards strong trend growth over the previous term of office. Voters also respond to policy platforms, and parties closest to the median voter have an advantage à la Downs (1957). This advantage is theorized to be heightened in times of recession. Using data from elections in OECD countries and a much more exacting econometric speci…cation than used in previous analyses we find robust evidence of a positive vote response to strong performance in trend growth. We also fi…nd evidence to support the hypothesis that centralizing garners additional votes during recession.
Original language | English |
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Place of Publication | York, UK |
Publisher | Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York |
Pages | 1-45 |
Number of pages | 45 |
Volume | 11/14 |
Publication status | Published - 12 Jul 2011 |
Publication series
Name | University of York Discussion Papers in Economics |
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Publisher | University of York |
Keywords
- economic voting
- competence
- median voter
- voter rationality
Activities
- 1 Invited talk
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paper presented at the Dept. of Economics, George Mason University, VA.
Pickering, A. C. (Invited speaker)
6 Mar 2013Activity: Talk or presentation › Invited talk