Voting and the macroeconomy: separating trend from cycle

John Maloney; Andrew Christopher Pickering

Voting and the macroeconomy: separating trend from cycle

John Maloney, Andrew Christopher Pickering

Economics

Research output: Working paper › Discussion paper

Abstract

Voters respond differently to trend growth as opposed to economic cycles in GDP.
When assessing incumbent competence the rational voter fi…lters out economic cycles when they are the product of external shocks but rewards strong trend growth over the previous term of office. Voters also respond to policy platforms, and parties closest to the median voter have an advantage à la Downs (1957). This advantage is theorized to be heightened in times of recession. Using data from elections in OECD countries and a much more exacting econometric speci…cation than used in previous analyses we find robust evidence of a positive vote response to strong performance in trend growth. We also fi…nd evidence to support the hypothesis that centralizing garners additional votes during recession.

Original language	English
Place of Publication	York, UK
Publisher	Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York
Pages	1-45
Number of pages	45
Volume	11/14
Publication status	Published - 12 Jul 2011

Publication series

Name	University of York Discussion Papers in Economics
Publisher	University of York

Keywords

economic voting
competence
median voter
voter rationality

Access to Document

York WPSubmitted manuscript, 253 KB

http://www.york.ac.uk/media/economics/documents/discussionpapers/2011/1114.pdf

paper presented at the Dept. of Economics, George Mason University, VA.
Andrew Christopher Pickering (Invited speaker)
6 Mar 2013
Activity: Talk or presentation › Invited talk

Cite this

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title = "Voting and the macroeconomy: separating trend from cycle",

abstract = "Voters respond differently to trend growth as opposed to economic cycles in GDP.When assessing incumbent competence the rational voter fi…lters out economic cycles when they are the product of external shocks but rewards strong trend growth over the previous term of office. Voters also respond to policy platforms, and parties closest to the median voter have an advantage {\`a} la Downs (1957). This advantage is theorized to be heightened in times of recession. Using data from elections in OECD countries and a much more exacting econometric speci…cation than used in previous analyses we find robust evidence of a positive vote response to strong performance in trend growth. We also fi…nd evidence to support the hypothesis that centralizing garners additional votes during recession.",

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N2 - Voters respond differently to trend growth as opposed to economic cycles in GDP.When assessing incumbent competence the rational voter fi…lters out economic cycles when they are the product of external shocks but rewards strong trend growth over the previous term of office. Voters also respond to policy platforms, and parties closest to the median voter have an advantage à la Downs (1957). This advantage is theorized to be heightened in times of recession. Using data from elections in OECD countries and a much more exacting econometric speci…cation than used in previous analyses we find robust evidence of a positive vote response to strong performance in trend growth. We also fi…nd evidence to support the hypothesis that centralizing garners additional votes during recession.

AB - Voters respond differently to trend growth as opposed to economic cycles in GDP.When assessing incumbent competence the rational voter fi…lters out economic cycles when they are the product of external shocks but rewards strong trend growth over the previous term of office. Voters also respond to policy platforms, and parties closest to the median voter have an advantage à la Downs (1957). This advantage is theorized to be heightened in times of recession. Using data from elections in OECD countries and a much more exacting econometric speci…cation than used in previous analyses we find robust evidence of a positive vote response to strong performance in trend growth. We also fi…nd evidence to support the hypothesis that centralizing garners additional votes during recession.

KW - economic voting

KW - competence

KW - median voter

KW - voter rationality

M3 - Discussion paper

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T3 - University of York Discussion Papers in Economics

SP - 1

EP - 45

BT - Voting and the macroeconomy

PB - Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York

CY - York, UK

ER -

Voting and the macroeconomy: separating trend from cycle

Abstract

Publication series

Keywords

Access to Document

Activities

paper presented at the Dept. of Economics, George Mason University, VA.

Cite this