Weighing the Fog of War: Illustrating the power of Bayesian methods for historical analysis through the battle of the Dogger Bank

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Weighing the Fog of War : Illustrating the power of Bayesian methods for historical analysis through the battle of the Dogger Bank. / MacKay, Niall; Price, Christopher; Wood, Andrew James.

In: Historical Methods: A journal of quantitative and interdisciplinary history, Vol. 49, No. 2, 31.03.2016, p. 80-91.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Harvard

MacKay, N, Price, C & Wood, AJ 2016, 'Weighing the Fog of War: Illustrating the power of Bayesian methods for historical analysis through the battle of the Dogger Bank', Historical Methods: A journal of quantitative and interdisciplinary history, vol. 49, no. 2, pp. 80-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2015.1072071

APA

MacKay, N., Price, C., & Wood, A. J. (2016). Weighing the Fog of War: Illustrating the power of Bayesian methods for historical analysis through the battle of the Dogger Bank. Historical Methods: A journal of quantitative and interdisciplinary history, 49(2), 80-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2015.1072071

Vancouver

MacKay N, Price C, Wood AJ. Weighing the Fog of War: Illustrating the power of Bayesian methods for historical analysis through the battle of the Dogger Bank. Historical Methods: A journal of quantitative and interdisciplinary history. 2016 Mar 31;49(2):80-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01615440.2015.1072071

Author

MacKay, Niall ; Price, Christopher ; Wood, Andrew James. / Weighing the Fog of War : Illustrating the power of Bayesian methods for historical analysis through the battle of the Dogger Bank. In: Historical Methods: A journal of quantitative and interdisciplinary history. 2016 ; Vol. 49, No. 2. pp. 80-91.

Bibtex - Download

@article{afe4bd9affd248009e1dc63dcb757850,
title = "Weighing the Fog of War: Illustrating the power of Bayesian methods for historical analysis through the battle of the Dogger Bank",
abstract = "The application of scientific methods to historical situations is restricted by the existence of a single outcome with no possibility of repetition. However, new computational methods make quantitative historical analysis nevertheless possible. We apply methods of approximate Bayesian computation to simulate a naval engagement of the First World War, the Battle of the Dogger Bank. We demonstrate that the battle’s outcome was highly unlikely, with significant implications both for subsequent actions and for historical understanding. Dogger Bank exemplifies our view that Bayesian methods offer historians the tool they need to grapple with the evolving probabilities of historical events, giving a sound scientific basis for counterfactual history, and opening up a wealth of possibilities for analysis.",
author = "Niall MacKay and Christopher Price and Wood, {Andrew James}",
note = "This is an author-produced version of the published paper. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher’s self-archiving policy. Further copying may not be permitted; contact the publisher for details. Embargo period: 18 months",
year = "2016",
month = "3",
day = "31",
doi = "10.1080/01615440.2015.1072071",
language = "English",
volume = "49",
pages = "80--91",
journal = "Historical Methods: A journal of quantitative and interdisciplinary history",
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RIS (suitable for import to EndNote) - Download

TY - JOUR

T1 - Weighing the Fog of War

T2 - Illustrating the power of Bayesian methods for historical analysis through the battle of the Dogger Bank

AU - MacKay, Niall

AU - Price, Christopher

AU - Wood, Andrew James

N1 - This is an author-produced version of the published paper. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher’s self-archiving policy. Further copying may not be permitted; contact the publisher for details. Embargo period: 18 months

PY - 2016/3/31

Y1 - 2016/3/31

N2 - The application of scientific methods to historical situations is restricted by the existence of a single outcome with no possibility of repetition. However, new computational methods make quantitative historical analysis nevertheless possible. We apply methods of approximate Bayesian computation to simulate a naval engagement of the First World War, the Battle of the Dogger Bank. We demonstrate that the battle’s outcome was highly unlikely, with significant implications both for subsequent actions and for historical understanding. Dogger Bank exemplifies our view that Bayesian methods offer historians the tool they need to grapple with the evolving probabilities of historical events, giving a sound scientific basis for counterfactual history, and opening up a wealth of possibilities for analysis.

AB - The application of scientific methods to historical situations is restricted by the existence of a single outcome with no possibility of repetition. However, new computational methods make quantitative historical analysis nevertheless possible. We apply methods of approximate Bayesian computation to simulate a naval engagement of the First World War, the Battle of the Dogger Bank. We demonstrate that the battle’s outcome was highly unlikely, with significant implications both for subsequent actions and for historical understanding. Dogger Bank exemplifies our view that Bayesian methods offer historians the tool they need to grapple with the evolving probabilities of historical events, giving a sound scientific basis for counterfactual history, and opening up a wealth of possibilities for analysis.

U2 - 10.1080/01615440.2015.1072071

DO - 10.1080/01615440.2015.1072071

M3 - Article

VL - 49

SP - 80

EP - 91

JO - Historical Methods: A journal of quantitative and interdisciplinary history

JF - Historical Methods: A journal of quantitative and interdisciplinary history

SN - 0161-5440

IS - 2

ER -